Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.323 — Eric Hosmer batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.321 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.321 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318 — Jose Altuve batting against Jakob Junis.
0.317 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.317 — Jose Pirela batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.314 — Jean Segura batting against Rick Porcello.
0.312 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310 — Freddie Freeman batting against Clayton Richard.
0.307 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.305 — Brian Anderson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.304 — Austin Meadows batting against Matt Harvey.
0.304 — Matt Kemp batting against Derek Holland.
0.301 — Nick Markakis batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Fiers.
0.295 — Adam Jones batting against Jose Urena.
0.295 — Derek Dietrich batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.295 — Travis Jankowski batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.294 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jakob Junis.
0.293 — Adrian Beltre batting against Chad Bettis.
0.293 — Elias Diaz batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289 — Jordy Mercer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Manny Machado batting against Jose Urena.
0.286 — A.J. Ellis batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Dickerson walked just 11 times this season, so his .343 OBP is made up mostly of hits. Harvey is a mirror image of that, with 63 hits and 17 walks allowed this season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.318, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Jakob Junis.
0.314, 0.753 — Jean Segura batting against Rick Porcello.
0.321, 0.745 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.338, 0.739 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310, 0.732 — Freddie Freeman batting against Clayton Richard.
0.304, 0.727 — Matt Kemp batting against Derek Holland.
0.294, 0.725 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jakob Junis.
0.321, 0.725 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.317, 0.724 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.323, 0.724 — Eric Hosmer batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.276, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.293, 0.717 — Adrian Beltre batting against Chad Bettis.
0.301, 0.716 — Nick Markakis batting against Clayton Richard.
0.307, 0.715 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.285, 0.713 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.298, 0.712 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Fiers.
0.317, 0.712 — Jose Pirela batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.312, 0.712 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Harvey.
0.262, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Wacha.
0.295, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Jose Urena.
0.277, 0.707 — Dee Gordon batting against Rick Porcello.
0.277, 0.706 — Gerardo Parra batting against Yohander Mendez.
0.271, 0.704 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yohander Mendez.
0.305, 0.703 — Brian Anderson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.254, 0.699 — Jose Martinez batting against Jon Lester.

Altuve pops to the top again. Junis doesn’t give up that many hits, but he doesn’t walk many batters, either. He owns a low .275 BABIP this season as well. Batters have not squared up the ball that much against him.

Dickerson is the consensus first choice with Altuve second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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