Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.348 — Jean Segura batting against Jason Hammel.
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.314 — Dee Gordon batting against Jason Hammel.
0.311 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.306 — Albert Almora batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.301 — Nick Markakis batting against Luke Weaver.
0.301 — Michael Brantley batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.300 — Kevan Smith batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299 — Freddie Freeman batting against Luke Weaver.
0.298 — Leury Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298 — Jose Abreu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.297 — Avisail Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jason Hammel.
0.291 — Brandon Crawford batting against Shelby Miller.
0.290 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sonny Gray.
0.286 — Gerardo Parra batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.286 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.283 — Jose Ramirez batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.283 — Nelson Cruz batting against Jason Hammel.
0.282 — Mookie Betts batting against Sonny Gray.
0.282 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller.
0.282 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luke Weaver.
0.282 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Luke Weaver.
0.280 — Mike Trout batting against Andrew Cashner.

Segura is just 4 for 23 against Hammel, but with just four strikeouts. Segura put the ball in play, but didn’t find many holes.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.348, 0.766 — Jean Segura batting against Jason Hammel.
0.306, 0.739 — Albert Almora batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.260, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.314, 0.729 — Dee Gordon batting against Jason Hammel.
0.301, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.311, 0.723 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.314, 0.722 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.290, 0.721 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.297, 0.716 — Avisail Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286, 0.714 — Gerardo Parra batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.287, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sonny Gray.
0.299, 0.713 — Freddie Freeman batting against Luke Weaver.
0.298, 0.710 — Jose Abreu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301, 0.710 — Nick Markakis batting against Luke Weaver.
0.300, 0.709 — Kevan Smith batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.291, 0.704 — Brandon Crawford batting against Shelby Miller.
0.298, 0.703 — Leury Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.279, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.278, 0.702 — Adam Jones batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.282, 0.701 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller.
0.282, 0.701 — Mookie Betts batting against Sonny Gray.
0.296, 0.699 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jason Hammel.
0.275, 0.698 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.253, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tyler Chatwood.

Segura is the unanimous first choice, with Dee Gordon the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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