Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.308 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.303 — Albert Almora batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.296 — Nick Castellanos batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.295 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Shelby Miller.
0.295 — Nick Markakis batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.289 — Matt M Duffy batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.287 — Ryon Healy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.285 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.284 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.282 — Adrian Beltre batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ.
0.281 — Derek Dietrich batting against Shelby Miller.
0.281 — Matt Kemp batting against Duane Underwood.
0.280 — Adam Jones batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.279 — Nelson Cruz batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.277 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.276 — Michael Brantley batting against John Gant.
0.276 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.275 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Straily.
0.275 — Brian Anderson batting against Shelby Miller.
0.274 — Starlin Castro batting against Shelby Miller.
0.274 — Miguel Andujar batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.271 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brad Keller.
0.271 — Wilson Ramos batting against Gio Gonzalez.

Like many Orioles pitchers this year, Cashner gets hit for average and power. He tends to turn entire lineups into MVPs. He has pitched better at home this season, however. Segura is 8 for 26 career against Cashner with just two strikeouts.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.762 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ.
0.303, 0.731 — Albert Almora batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.308, 0.724 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.295, 0.719 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Shelby Miller.
0.296, 0.718 — Nick Castellanos batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.265, 0.716 — Scooter Gennett batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.289, 0.716 — Matt M Duffy batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.276, 0.714 — Michael Brantley batting against John Gant.
0.294, 0.713 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.282, 0.709 — Adrian Beltre batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.295, 0.708 — Nick Markakis batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.259, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against J.A. Happ.
0.281, 0.705 — Matt Kemp batting against Duane Underwood.
0.280, 0.704 — Adam Jones batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.276, 0.700 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.275, 0.700 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Straily.
0.269, 0.695 — Corey Dickerson batting against Seth Lugo.
0.287, 0.694 — Ryon Healy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.284, 0.694 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.271, 0.693 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brad Keller.
0.274, 0.693 — Starlin Castro batting against Shelby Miller.
0.271, 0.692 — Wilson Ramos batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.281, 0.691 — Derek Dietrich batting against Shelby Miller.
0.254, 0.688 — Jose Ramirez batting against John Gant.

Segura is the unanimous first choice. Both Segura and Altuve own .311 hit averages this season. Altuve comes out on top on the 2016-2018 hit average, .308 to .293 for Segura. Segura comes out on top today because Cashner comes in at .268/.244 (1 year/3 year) while Happ is .190/.212. The parks are very different, two, with Camden Yards at .234 over the last three season and Minute Maid Park at .214 over the same time period. This gives you a little bit of an idea of how the NN weights the various parameters. Almora and Dee Gordon are tied for consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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