Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.304 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.300 — Jose Martinez batting against Brent Suter.
0.299 — Eddie Rosario batting against Rick Porcello.
0.297 — Kris Bryant batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295 — Adam C Eaton batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.295 — Tommy La Stella batting against Matt Harvey.
0.291 — Jon Jay batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.291 — Gerardo Parra batting against Steven Matz.
0.290 — Trea Turner batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.290 — Addison Russell batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289 — Anthony Rendon batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.288 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zachary Godley.
0.288 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Brent Suter.
0.287 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.286 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.286 — Willson Contreras batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286 — Jason Heyward batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Juan Soto batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.282 — Ben Zobrist batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
0.280 — Nolan Arenado batting against Steven Matz.
0.276 — David Peralta batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.276 — Yadier Molina batting against Brent Suter.
0.273 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz.

There is a light schedule today. The Log5 method likes the Cubs against Matt Harvey and the Nationals against Kevin Gausman, although the Nationals seem to be in an offensive funk right now. They’ve been shutout five times this month.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.350, 0.761 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299, 0.729 — Eddie Rosario batting against Rick Porcello.
0.291, 0.726 — Gerardo Parra batting against Steven Matz.
0.286, 0.723 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.300, 0.723 — Jose Martinez batting against Brent Suter.
0.280, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
0.255, 0.715 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Severino.
0.287, 0.712 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.280, 0.711 — Nolan Arenado batting against Steven Matz.
0.273, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz.
0.291, 0.710 — Jon Jay batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.288, 0.706 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Brent Suter.
0.288, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zachary Godley.
0.304, 0.703 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295, 0.701 — Adam C Eaton batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.257, 0.699 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.259, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.290, 0.696 — Trea Turner batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.297, 0.692 — Kris Bryant batting against Matt Harvey.
0.276, 0.690 — David Peralta batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.276, 0.689 — Yadier Molina batting against Brent Suter.
0.272, 0.688 — Starling Marte batting against Zachary Godley.
0.295, 0.688 — Tommy La Stella batting against Matt Harvey.
0.269, 0.688 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.262, 0.688 — Jose Abreu batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.268, 0.688 — Eric Hosmer batting against Madison Bumgarner.

Almora tops the list here by a wide margin. He’s tough to pick, however, since he does not always start for the Cubs. He’s played 66 games, but only started 45. He’s the type of high BA, low walk player that should do well in extending hit streaks, but if you pick him and he pinch hits, he provides no room for error. Eddie Rosario is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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