Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — Jose Martinez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.342 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jason Hammel.
0.325 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310 — Yadier Molina batting against Eric Lauer.
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.299 — Thomas Pham batting against Eric Lauer.
0.298 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Joey Votto batting against Jason Hammel.
0.295 — Starlin Castro batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.295 — Brian Anderson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.295 — Gerardo Parra batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.291 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Greinke.
0.290 — Jose Peraza batting against Jason Hammel.
0.289 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.287 — Harrison Bader batting against Eric Lauer.
0.287 — Whit Merrifield batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.287 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Eric Lauer.
0.286 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.286 — Jon Jay batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285 — Miguel Andujar batting against Erick Fedde.
0.284 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.283 — Yairo Munoz batting against Eric Lauer.
0.283 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.283 — Eric Hosmer batting against Luke Weaver.
0.283 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Michael Soroka.

Jose Martinez came to the majors late, seasonal age 27. That’s the middle of his prime. In his third season with the Cardinals, he’s only now approaching 600 career plate appearances. He hits for average, gets on base at a high clip, and hits for power. He hits much better in the majors than he did in the minors, which is why he came up so late.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.755 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jason Hammel.
0.306, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.345, 0.746 — Jose Martinez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.265, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
0.325, 0.722 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Eric Lauer.
0.289, 0.720 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.295, 0.717 — Gerardo Parra batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289, 0.717 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289, 0.715 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.276, 0.713 — Albert Almora batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.279, 0.712 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.286, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.291, 0.710 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Greinke.
0.298, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.708 — Nolan Arenado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295, 0.707 — Starlin Castro batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.259, 0.706 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd.
0.310, 0.706 — Yadier Molina batting against Eric Lauer.
0.276, 0.705 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.279, 0.704 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Erick Fedde.
0.286, 0.703 — Jon Jay batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.269, 0.703 — Matt Kemp batting against Cole Hamels.
0.265, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against J.A. Happ.
0.296, 0.700 — Joey Votto batting against Jason Hammel.
0.283, 0.700 — Eric Hosmer batting against Luke Weaver.

Gennett pops to the top of the NN list, and is also the consensus first pick, with Jose Martinez second. Gennett is 7 for 24 career against Hammel, but with seven strikeouts.

Note that yesterday’s top pick, Jose Altuve, went 0 for 5. That’s a great example of the luck of the draw. He was the highest rated hitter. He hit the opposing starting pitcher well. The rest of the team hit well as Houston collected 12 hits in the game. Sometimes the best hitters just go 0 for 5.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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