Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Jose Altuve batting against Wilmer Font.
0.330 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — Jean Segura batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.315 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.309 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wilmer Font.
0.307 — Austin Meadows batting against Eric Lauer.
0.307 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.301 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.301 — Josh Harrison batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.297 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Sal Romano.
0.295 — Elias Diaz batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Whit Merrifield batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.293 — John Hicks batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.292 — Jon Jay batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.292 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.290 — Dee Gordon batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.288 — Jose Ramirez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.286 — Christian Yelich batting against Sal Romano.
0.286 — Leury Garcia batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.285 — Andrelton Simmons batting against David Hess.
0.285 — Eric Hosmer batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.285 — David Peralta batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284 — Kevan Smith batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.284 — Jose Abreu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.284 — Gerardo Parra batting against Rich Hill.

One of my sources had Eric Lauer going for the Padres, but others had the Padres undecided. Be careful picking Pirates today. Yelich left the Brewers game Friday night with a back injury, and he is day to day.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Wilmer Font.
0.319, 0.749 — Jean Segura batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.310, 0.728 — Michael Brantley batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.330, 0.727 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.309, 0.727 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wilmer Font.
0.315, 0.724 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.292, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.273, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chase Anderson.
0.301, 0.714 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.290, 0.714 — Dee Gordon batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.283, 0.711 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dylan Covey.
0.261, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Jose Berrios.
0.284, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Rich Hill.
0.297, 0.707 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.276, 0.707 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.288, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.295, 0.704 — Whit Merrifield batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285, 0.704 — Andrelton Simmons batting against David Hess.
0.307, 0.704 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297, 0.703 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Sal Romano.
0.281, 0.701 — Adam Jones batting against Felix Pena.
0.292, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.282, 0.700 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.265, 0.699 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.284, 0.699 — Jose Abreu batting against Yovani Gallardo.

It looks like a good day to double down on Altuve and Segura.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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