Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jason Vargas.
0.320 — Jed Lowrie batting against Eric Lauer.
0.315 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jason Vargas.
0.315 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jason Hammel.
0.312 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sal Romano.
0.311 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.307 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jason Vargas.
0.303 — Albert Almora batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.302 — Albert Almora batting against Rich Hill.
0.300 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.300 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Eric Lauer.
0.300 — Jose Martinez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.298 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luke Weaver.
0.296 — Nick Markakis batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.294 — Miguel Andujar batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.293 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jason Hammel.
0.292 — Marcus Semien batting against Eric Lauer.
0.291 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.290 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.288 — Jean Segura batting against Domingo German.
0.287 — John Hicks batting against Sal Romano.
0.285 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.285 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against German Marquez.
0.283 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.282 — Dustin Fowler batting against Eric Lauer.
0.202 — Chad Pinder batting against Eric Lauer.

The Dodgers and Cubs play two games today in a split double header, so if you want to pick Albert Almora, check to see if he’s playing against the proper starter. Jason Vargas allowed 46 hits in 35 1/3 innings this season, eight of those home runs. He’s playing at Coors, so it seems like a good day to double down on Rockies batters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.739 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288, 0.736 — Jean Segura batting against Domingo German.
0.265, 0.733 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell.
0.303, 0.731 — Albert Almora batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.315, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jason Vargas.
0.315, 0.729 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jason Hammel.
0.302, 0.726 — Albert Almora batting against Rich Hill.
0.312, 0.724 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sal Romano.
0.307, 0.724 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.300, 0.722 — Jose Martinez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.311, 0.722 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.300, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.266, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Matt Boyd.
0.293, 0.709 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jason Hammel.
0.290, 0.709 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.298, 0.708 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luke Weaver.
0.296, 0.707 — Nick Markakis batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.265, 0.706 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.272, 0.705 — Matt Kemp batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.320, 0.704 — Jed Lowrie batting against Eric Lauer.
0.283, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.275, 0.699 — Adam Jones batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.277, 0.697 — Jon Jay batting against Felix Pena.
0.243, 0.697 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chris Sale.

Both systems like Parra number one. LeMahieu is the consensus second choice. Segura against German rates high despite German being a low hit, high walk pitcher. His major league career is short, so his three-year numbers are still heavily regressed toward the mean.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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