Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.306 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brian Johnson.
0.304 — Adam Jones batting against Mike Leake.
0.299 — Jean Segura batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.298 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.295 — Manny Machado batting against Mike Leake.
0.293 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.292 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jaime Barria.
0.285 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.284 — Mike Trout batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Leake.
0.283 — Alen Hanson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.282 — Brandon Belt batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.281 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.280 — Nick Hundley batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277 — Mookie Betts batting against Jaime Barria.
0.277 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.275 — Eddie Rosario batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.274 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.274 — Austin Jackson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.274 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.271 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.271 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Jonathan Gray.

There is a very light schedule today, allowing Brandon Crawford to pop to the top of the list. I will note that Gray is pitching in San Francisco tonight, and his home/road split is such that you might want to take Crawford’s ranking with a grain of salt. Crawford is 4 for 9 career against Gray, and McCutchen is one of the best hitters against Gray at 7 for 12.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.299, 0.741 — Jean Segura batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.268, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.288, 0.722 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jaime Barria.
0.292, 0.719 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304, 0.719 — Adam Jones batting against Mike Leake.
0.306, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brian Johnson.
0.285, 0.717 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.314, 0.714 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.269, 0.713 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.275, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.277, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.281, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.298, 0.705 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.295, 0.705 — Manny Machado batting against Mike Leake.
0.281, 0.704 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.270, 0.703 — Dee Gordon batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.262, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Lance McCullers.
0.274, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.277, 0.701 — Mookie Betts batting against Jaime Barria.
0.270, 0.696 — Matt Kemp batting against Jose Quintana.
0.245, 0.694 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.255, 0.693 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sean Manaea.
0.269, 0.690 — Jon Jay batting against Trevor Richards.
0.284, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Leake.
0.284, 0.689 — Mike Trout batting against Brian Johnson.

A very different ranking. Segura faces Yacabonis, who only has 23 MLB innings under his belt. The NN will see him as pretty much a league average pitcher, but he walks a lot of batters. Again, this is a ranking that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Segura is the consensus first pick as well.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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