Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.354 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.345 — Brian Anderson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.342 — Starlin Castro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.328 — Derek Dietrich batting against Alex Cobb.
0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.322 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.314 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.313 — Nick Markakis batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.311 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.303 — Matt Kemp batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.302 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.301 — Adam Jones batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.301 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.299 — Scott Schebler batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.295 — J.T. Riddle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.294 — Manny Machado batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.292 — Miguel Rojas batting against Alex Cobb.
0.291 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.291 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Minor.
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Justin Bour batting against Alex Cobb.
0.287 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luis Castillo.
0.287 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Minor.

With Alex Cobb on the mound for the Orioles, it’s a good day to double down on Marlins hitters. Starlin Castro is only 1 for 11 with three K against Cobb, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.360, 0.764 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.323, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.354, 0.741 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.322, 0.737 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.269, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Steven Wright.
0.342, 0.732 — Starlin Castro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299, 0.728 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.345, 0.725 — Brian Anderson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.303, 0.722 — Matt Kemp batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.313, 0.721 — Nick Markakis batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.302, 0.719 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Fernando Romero.
0.291, 0.716 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.296, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.284, 0.714 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.283, 0.713 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.301, 0.713 — Adam Jones batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.314, 0.711 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Mike Minor.
0.311, 0.709 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Minor.
0.291, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Minor.
0.278, 0.707 — Daniel Murphy batting against Marco Estrada.
0.270, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.279, 0.706 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Matz.

Both systems agree on Gennett as the top pick, with J.T. Realmuto the consensus second pick. Gennett is only 1 for 14 against Nova in his career, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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