Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Kison Passes

Former pitcher Bruce Kison died this morning, Saturday, at the age of 68:

Right-handed pitcher Bruce Kison, who won two World Series rings with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1970s, passed away Saturday morning after a battle with cancer.

…

Kison pitched for the Pirates from 1971 to ’79 before pitching for five more years for the California Angels and one season with the Boston Red Sox. Kison finished his MLB career with 115 wins, a 3.66 ERA and 1,073 strikeouts in 1,809 2/3 innings pitched. He also recorded 12 saves.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Kison pitched for 15 season, compiling a 115-88 record with a 3.66 ERA. It was in an era when strikeout pitchers were not as common as they are today. Kison struck out just 5.3 batters per nine innings, but allowed just 1693 hits in 1809 2/3 innings. He wasn’t good at missing bats, but he was good at inducing poor contact.

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Rushing Back

Both Clayton Kershaw and now Dustin Pedroia returned to the disabled list quickly after their previous injuries.

Pedroia back on DL, joining Betts. #RedSox promote Travis, Poyner.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 2, 2018

This makes the Washington Nationals look properly cautious as they refuse to rush their stars back from the disabled list. They’ve played well with a delpleted team thanks to the depth of their farm system and a couple of good veteran signings. They should play better when a healthy Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton back for the long haul.

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Games of the Day

J.A. Happ pitches against Matt Boyd as the Blue Jays play the Tigers. Happ is showing fantastic control this year, with 79 K and 18 walks in 65 2/3 innings. Boyd pitched better than his 3-4 record, allowing just three home runs in 57 innings.

David Price and Justin Verlander battle as the Red Sox try to win a game in the four-game series. Price pitched better on the road this season, where he allowed just two home runs, compared to four at home in fewer innings. Verlander leads the Cy Young race in the American League. Verlander’s 1.11 ERA is ahead of Bob Gibson in 1968 through June 1.

Finally, Caleb Smith and the Marlins take on Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks. Smith, a left-hander, has been very tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .155/.262/.303 slash line. Greinke, in 66 2/3 innings, allowed more home runs (11) than walks (10).

Enjoy!

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Unusual Blowout

The Athletics beat the Royals 16-0 Friday night. Frankie Montas pitched eight shutout innings. He did not get the chance to complete the game, however, having thrown 99 pitches. He moved into the Oakland rotation this season after making 23 relief appearances in 2017 and getting hammered. He’s 25 years old, so I don’t see why the Athletics didn’t let him finish.

Montas faced 30 batters, walked none, hit two, and struck out two. The Royals, as their wont, put the ball in play and were 7 for 26 doing so (.269). In general, they are about league average putting the ball in play with a .298 BABIP. They went 0 for 9, however, with runners in scoring position.

Most of the damage on offense came from the bottom of the Oakland order. Stephen Piscotty, Dustin Fowler, and Jonathan Lucroy combine for a 8 for 15 night with a double, a triple, and two home runs. Lucroy hit the triple, his first of the year and 23rd of his career. That’s pretty good for a catcher.

Oakland is two game over .500 and remains in the hunt for a playoff berth.

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Folting to the Top

Mike Foltynewicz‘s brilliant performance against the Nationals Friday night puts him in the Cy Young conversation for the NL. He allowed two hits and one walk while striking out 11 as he earns a shutout. He currently ranks fourth in the league in Tom Tango Cy Young points. There’s a long way to go in the season, and all top four pitchers are in the NL East, so they should be seeing each other quite a bit. The Braves took the game 4-0.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.322 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.317 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.315 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.312 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Archer.
0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.307 — Mark Reynolds batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.305 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
0.305 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.303 — Joey Votto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.302 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299 — Anthony Rendon batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.298 — Travis Jankowski batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.294 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.293 — Starling Marte batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.293 — Matthew Adams batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291 — Joey Wendle batting against Marco Gonzales.

Gennett returns to the top of the list. He is tied with Kemp for the NL lead in batting average. Gennett owns the higher OBP, so Kemp has the higher hit average. I suspect when the NN includes the park, Kemp might come out on top. Let’s see.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.361, 0.760 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.312, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Archer.
0.293, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.313, 0.738 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.322, 0.732 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.305, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
0.317, 0.729 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302, 0.721 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.283, 0.720 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
0.305, 0.717 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.313, 0.716 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293, 0.715 — Starling Marte batting against Luke Weaver.
0.297, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.315, 0.713 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310, 0.710 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.283, 0.710 — Jose Ramirez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.263, 0.708 — Albert Almora batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.279, 0.708 — Dee Gordon batting against Chris Archer.
0.286, 0.706 — Buster Posey batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.262, 0.705 — Eddie Rosario batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.276, 0.701 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.269, 0.700 — Jose Abreu batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.272, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Zack Greinke.
0.288, 0.697 — Brandon Crawford batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.307, 0.697 — Mark Reynolds batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.305, 0.697 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.

Gennett is the consensus first choice. Lauer’s regressed hit average against comes in at .303, and that’s more than enough to swamp the big advantage of playing in Coors. The BABIP against Lauer is .408. Duffy is the consensus second choice. Duffy owns 53 and nine walks this season in 177 PA, so his OBP comes mostly from hits. He is the type of player who should be good at extending hit streaks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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