Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.322 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.317 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.315 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.312 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Archer.
0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.307 — Mark Reynolds batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.305 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
0.305 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.303 — Joey Votto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.302 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299 — Anthony Rendon batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.298 — Travis Jankowski batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.294 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.293 — Starling Marte batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.293 — Matthew Adams batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291 — Joey Wendle batting against Marco Gonzales.

Gennett returns to the top of the list. He is tied with Kemp for the NL lead in batting average. Gennett owns the higher OBP, so Kemp has the higher hit average. I suspect when the NN includes the park, Kemp might come out on top. Let’s see.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.361, 0.760 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.312, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Archer.
0.293, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.313, 0.738 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.322, 0.732 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.305, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
0.317, 0.729 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302, 0.721 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.283, 0.720 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
0.305, 0.717 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.313, 0.716 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293, 0.715 — Starling Marte batting against Luke Weaver.
0.297, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.315, 0.713 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310, 0.710 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.283, 0.710 — Jose Ramirez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.263, 0.708 — Albert Almora batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.279, 0.708 — Dee Gordon batting against Chris Archer.
0.286, 0.706 — Buster Posey batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.262, 0.705 — Eddie Rosario batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.276, 0.701 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.269, 0.700 — Jose Abreu batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.272, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Zack Greinke.
0.288, 0.697 — Brandon Crawford batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.307, 0.697 — Mark Reynolds batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.305, 0.697 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.

Gennett is the consensus first choice. Lauer’s regressed hit average against comes in at .303, and that’s more than enough to swamp the big advantage of playing in Coors. The BABIP against Lauer is .408. Duffy is the consensus second choice. Duffy owns 53 and nine walks this season in 177 PA, so his OBP comes mostly from hits. He is the type of player who should be good at extending hit streaks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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