A Rare Mallex Mallet

The Rays beat the Astros 3-2 Sunday afternoon, Mallex Smith providing the winning margin with a solo home run in the bottom of the eighth inning. It was his first home run of the season, and he game into the game with the most AB in 2018 without a homer. That distinction now belongs to Cameron Maybin.

Blake Snell allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings for the win, his 11th of the season, and lowers his ERA to 2.24. The Rays have now won 10 of their last 13 games to move to one game over .500. The Atheltics and Rays are trying to make a little run at the wild card, but Seattle comes into their game with six wins in a row, making gaining ground difficult.

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The Strikeout Record

A good friend of mine wanted to know the probability of Joey Gallo striking out 224 times this season, setting a new single season record. Gallo appears to be doing better as the season progresses, but the probability is still pretty good at 0.31. I will track this on a daily basis at the spreadsheet.

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Games of the Day

The Rays try to take three of four from the visiting Astros as Houston sends Charlie Morton against Blake Snell. Morton is 10-1 in his 16 starts, and Houston is 11-5 overall in those games. He is coming off a June in which he kept the ball in the park, but walked a high number of batters. Snell also goes for his 11th win. He is 5-1 at home with a 0.81 ERA, thanks to allowing just 28 hits in 44 1/3 innings.

Veterans Gio Gonzalez and Jake Arrieta take the mound as the Nationals play the Phillies. Gonzalez fell apart in June, posting an 8.44 ERA in five starts. He allowed six home runs and 11 walks in 21 1/3 innings. Arrieta had an evil month as well, 0-4 with 6.66 ERA. He allowed seven home runs in 25 2/3 innings.

The first place Braves go for a sweep of St. Louis with Mike Foltynewicz taking on John Gant. Foltynewicz may be the unluckiest pitcher in the majors this year. He is just 5-4 despite a 2.14 ERA. The assigned wins tracker says he should be 7-3. Gant split time between the bullpen and the rotation, allowing just one home run in 33 2/3 innings.

Mike Clevinger matches up against Frankie Montas as the Indians play the Athletics. Clevinger comes off a pretty good June in which he posted a 2.78 ERA. He struck out 33 and walked just 11 batters in 32 1/3 innings. Montas is pitching much better as a starter than he did as a reliever in 2017. In about the same number of innings, he cut his home runs allowed from ten to two.

Finally, the Red Sox and Yankees play the rubber game of their series with David Price battling Luis Severino. Price has not shone against the Yankees since putting on a Red Sox uniform. He is 2-5 with a 7.42 ERA, allowing 65 hits in 43 2/3 innings. Severino has not exactly dominated the Red Sox either. He is 2-5 with a 4.61 ERA, despite 62 K and 13 BB in 52 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.315 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302 — Michael Brantley batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Lance Lynn.
0.293 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ross Stripling.
0.293 — Jean Segura batting against Brad Keller.
0.289 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.285 — Hernan Perez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Jose Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.283 — Jonathan Villar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.281 — Mike Trout batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.278 — Francisco Lindor batting against Frankie Montas.
0.278 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.
0.278 — Starlin Castro batting against Steven Matz.
0.277 — Ryan Braun batting against Matt Harvey.
0.275 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Frankie Montas.
0.275 — Brandon Crawford batting against Zachary Godley.
0.274 — Jon Jay batting against Derek Holland.
0.274 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.274 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.273 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.272 — Tyler Naquin batting against Frankie Montas.

Simmons struck out by far the least of any regular in the majors. Putting the ball in play helps him to a high batting average.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.293, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Brad Keller.
0.293, 0.732 — Albert Almora batting against Lance Lynn.
0.315, 0.727 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.248, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell.
0.302, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Frankie Montas.
0.293, 0.716 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ross Stripling.
0.289, 0.714 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.310, 0.712 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299, 0.712 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.248, 0.703 — Scooter Gennett batting against Freddy Peralta.
0.300, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283, 0.702 — Jose Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.258, 0.702 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jon Lester.
0.282, 0.702 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.278, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.
0.278, 0.700 — Starlin Castro batting against Steven Matz.
0.274, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.259, 0.694 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.260, 0.694 — Dee Gordon batting against Brad Keller.
0.248, 0.694 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.268, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against Deck Deck McGuire.
0.273, 0.691 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.255, 0.691 — Adrian Beltre batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.274, 0.690 — Jon Jay batting against Derek Holland.
0.270, 0.690 — Buster Posey batting against Zachary Godley.
0.234, 0.690 — Matt M Duffy batting against Charlie Morton.
0.274, 0.690 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.255, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.

Segura once again pops to the top off the NN list, but Simmons is the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Players of the Month

A number of batters posted great months in June 2018. Mike Trout led the majors in OBP (all averages minimum 80 PA) with a .496 mark. He collected 32 hits and 24 walks, getting plunked three times for 59 times on base. Jesus Aguilar led in slugging percentage with a .747 mark, but did not play as much as many of the leaders. His 10 home runs in 89 PA was impressive. Paul Goldschmidt was not far behind with at .738. He also hit ten home runs and led the majors in hits with 39.

Alex Bregman and Nelson Cruz led the majors with 11 home runs each. Bregman tied for the lead in RBI with 30 with teammate Evan Gattis, while Bregman was also second in runs scored with 24. Goldschmidt led that category with 25.

Goldschmidt gets the nod as he is the players who did everything well. He collected hits, walks, extra-base hits, scored runs, drove in runs, and just played an outstanding brand of baseball in June. Paul Goldschmidt is the Baseball Musings Offensive Players of the Month for June 2018.

On the pitching side, Tyler Skaggs posted a 0.84 ERA in five starts covering 32 innings. (Average categories based on 26 innings). He struck out 10.12 batters per nine and did not allow a home run. The competition for best three-true outcomes comes down to Trevor Bauer and Chris Sale. They ranked 2-3 respectively in strikeouts per nine IP, and three-four respectively in home runs allowed per nine innings. Sale wins the walk battle and the ERA battle. Sale also pitched 41 innings, Bauer 41 1/3, well eclipsing Skaggs. Jon Lester and Zach Eflin both went 5-0 with excellent ERAs.

It strikes me that Sale was the total package. He did everything well and pitch a lot of innings, his walk rate and ERA giving him the advantage over Bauer. His mastery of the Yankees Saturday night didn’t hurt. Chris Sale is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2018.

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Best Batter Today

Alex Bregman stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after homering on Saturday. He is followed by teammate Jose Altuve, then Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, and Nelson Cruz. Cruz moves into the fifth slot thanks to a 2 for 4 night, while Matt Carpenter went 0 for 2, leaving a blow-out loss early for a pinch hitter.

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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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