Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.315 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302 — Michael Brantley batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Lance Lynn.
0.293 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ross Stripling.
0.293 — Jean Segura batting against Brad Keller.
0.289 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.285 — Hernan Perez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Jose Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.283 — Jonathan Villar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.281 — Mike Trout batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.278 — Francisco Lindor batting against Frankie Montas.
0.278 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.
0.278 — Starlin Castro batting against Steven Matz.
0.277 — Ryan Braun batting against Matt Harvey.
0.275 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Frankie Montas.
0.275 — Brandon Crawford batting against Zachary Godley.
0.274 — Jon Jay batting against Derek Holland.
0.274 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.274 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.273 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.272 — Tyler Naquin batting against Frankie Montas.

Simmons struck out by far the least of any regular in the majors. Putting the ball in play helps him to a high batting average.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.293, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Brad Keller.
0.293, 0.732 — Albert Almora batting against Lance Lynn.
0.315, 0.727 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.248, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell.
0.302, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Frankie Montas.
0.293, 0.716 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ross Stripling.
0.289, 0.714 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.310, 0.712 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.299, 0.712 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.248, 0.703 — Scooter Gennett batting against Freddy Peralta.
0.300, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283, 0.702 — Jose Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.258, 0.702 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jon Lester.
0.282, 0.702 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.278, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.
0.278, 0.700 — Starlin Castro batting against Steven Matz.
0.274, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.259, 0.694 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.260, 0.694 — Dee Gordon batting against Brad Keller.
0.248, 0.694 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.268, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against Deck Deck McGuire.
0.273, 0.691 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.255, 0.691 — Adrian Beltre batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.274, 0.690 — Jon Jay batting against Derek Holland.
0.270, 0.690 — Buster Posey batting against Zachary Godley.
0.234, 0.690 — Matt M Duffy batting against Charlie Morton.
0.274, 0.690 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.255, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.

Segura once again pops to the top off the NN list, but Simmons is the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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