Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.330 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.323 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Homer Bailey.
0.323 — Yairo Munoz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.319 — Corey Dickerson batting against Shane Bieber.
0.318 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.315 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.314 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.311 — Harrison Bader batting against Homer Bailey.
0.310 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.307 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.305 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.303 — Paul DeJong batting against Homer Bailey.
0.302 — Starling Marte batting against Shane Bieber.
0.299 — Jose Ramirez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.299 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Thomas Pham batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297 — Wilmer Flores batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297 — Charlie Culberson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.294 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.294 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293 — Matt Carpenter batting against Homer Bailey.
0.292 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Homer Bailey.

It looks like the day to pick a Cardinals batter. Bailey owns a .313/.369/.564 slash line this season, giving up many more hits than walks. Martinez, Molina, and Munoz are the best hackers on the team, although all put up decent enough walk rates that I would not categorize them as hackers per se. Carpenter is 19 for 39 career against Bailey with 5 K.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.305, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.318, 0.745 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.341, 0.741 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.319, 0.730 — Corey Dickerson batting against Shane Bieber.
0.289, 0.730 — Albert Almora batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.330, 0.727 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.
0.310, 0.727 — Michael Brantley batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.287, 0.724 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.314, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.299, 0.722 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.323, 0.721 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Homer Bailey.
0.299, 0.719 — Jose Ramirez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.315, 0.719 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.294, 0.718 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.294, 0.715 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.307, 0.714 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.302, 0.713 — Starling Marte batting against Shane Bieber.
0.273, 0.710 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.323, 0.708 — Yairo Munoz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.275, 0.708 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.274, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Austin Gomber.
0.275, 0.707 — Matt M Duffy batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.288, 0.706 — Nick Castellanos batting against Burch Smith.
0.310, 0.705 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Eric Lauer.
0.286, 0.702 — Adrian Beltre batting against Frankie Montas.

The NN scoffs at the Cardinals against Bailey, and points out that Jose Altuve is batting at Coors Field! Altuve is just 12 for 42 at Coors, but only struck out three times. Jose Martinez is the consensus first pick, with Segura, Molina, and Dickerson tied for the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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