Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.338 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Anderson.
0.331 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Anderson.
0.324 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.315 — Trevor Story batting against Brett Anderson.
0.306 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.298 — Odubel Herrera batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Tom Murphy batting against Brett Anderson.
0.296 — Eddie Rosario batting against Rick Porcello.
0.295 — Michael Brantley batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.293 — Noel A Cuevas batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Ian Desmond batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.290 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.288 — Joey Wendle batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.286 — Garrett Hampson batting against Brett Anderson.
0.284 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — Maikel Franco batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280 — Jose Ramirez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.280 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.280 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
0.279 — Nick Williams batting against Matt Harvey.
0.279 — Mallex Smith batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.279 — Scooter Gennett batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Anderson pitched just 29 1/3 innings this season so he looks this bad despite some regression to the league hit average. The BABIP against him in 2018 is .373.

Note that the Royals and Yankees are playing a split double header today, so if you are planning on picking someone from those games, make sure you choose the correct game.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.339, 0.753 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.338, 0.746 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Anderson.
0.302, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.331, 0.739 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Anderson.
0.290, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.296, 0.726 — Eddie Rosario batting against Rick Porcello.
0.291, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.324, 0.725 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.295, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.306, 0.721 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.279, 0.713 — Scooter Gennett batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.274, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.272, 0.711 — Daniel Murphy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.315, 0.710 — Trevor Story batting against Brett Anderson.
0.275, 0.709 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Barria.
0.280, 0.709 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.298, 0.706 — Odubel Herrera batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.273, 0.705 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.276, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.261, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.280, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
0.276, 0.700 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277, 0.698 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.267, 0.697 — Matt Kemp batting against Max Fried.
0.261, 0.697 — Avisail Garcia batting against John Axford.

The NN matches the Log5 perfectly on the top two. It should be a good day to double down on Rockies, with Blackmon and Arenado at the top.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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