Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — David Peralta batting against Martin Perez.
0.336 — A.J. Pollock batting against Martin Perez.
0.331 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.324 — Jon Jay batting against Martin Perez.
0.320 — Buster Posey batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Martin Perez.
0.315 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Martin Perez.
0.310 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.309 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.306 — Brandon Crawford batting against Eric Lauer.
0.303 — Alen Hanson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.303 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.299 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.296 — Ketel Marte batting against Martin Perez.
0.296 — Joe Mauer batting against Shane Bieber.
0.293 — Nick Hundley batting against Eric Lauer.
0.292 — Evan Longoria batting against Eric Lauer.
0.290 — Nick Ahmed batting against Martin Perez.
0.289 — Charlie Culberson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.288 — Austin Slater batting against Eric Lauer.
0.288 — Brandon Belt batting against Eric Lauer.
0.286 — Steven Duggar batting against Eric Lauer.
0.284 — Steven Souza batting against Martin Perez.
0.284 — Jake Cave batting against Shane Bieber.
0.284 — Jorge Polanco batting against Shane Bieber.

It should be a good day for the Diamondbacks hitters. Even Nick Ahmed makes the list!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.739 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.338, 0.730 — David Peralta batting against Martin Perez.
0.336, 0.723 — A.J. Pollock batting against Martin Perez.
0.320, 0.722 — Buster Posey batting against Eric Lauer.
0.309, 0.721 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.310, 0.716 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.324, 0.714 — Jon Jay batting against Martin Perez.
0.303, 0.713 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.264, 0.710 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Nola.
0.247, 0.710 — Jean Segura batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.274, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Ervin Santana.
0.262, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Aaron Nola.
0.315, 0.701 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Martin Perez.
0.319, 0.701 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Martin Perez.
0.261, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.268, 0.698 — Jose Martinez batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.306, 0.697 — Brandon Crawford batting against Eric Lauer.
0.268, 0.695 — Christian Yelich batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.296, 0.694 — Joe Mauer batting against Shane Bieber.
0.267, 0.693 — Yadier Molina batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.237, 0.693 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.252, 0.691 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against James Paxton.
0.245, 0.690 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Julio Teheran.
0.257, 0.689 — Nolan Arenado batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.299, 0.687 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.268, 0.687 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.289, 0.687 — Charlie Culberson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.256, 0.687 — Adrian Beltre batting against Robbie Ray.
0.303, 0.687 — Alen Hanson batting against Eric Lauer.

David Peralta is the consensus first choice, Rosario second choice. It might, however, be a good day to double down on Peralta and Pollock.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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