Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.352 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.332 — Starling Marte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.328 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.326 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.320 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.318 — Scooter Gennett batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.316 — Austin Meadows batting against Jason Vargas.
0.314 — Albert Almora batting against Luke Weaver.
0.312 — Elias Diaz batting against Jason Vargas.
0.306 — Jon Jay batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.306 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.304 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.299 — David Freese batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299 — Josh Harrison batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.299 — Jose Peraza batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.295 — Javier Baez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.294 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.292 — Wilmer Flores batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292 — Jordy Mercer batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Colin Moran batting against Jason Vargas.
0.290 — Josh Bell batting against Jason Vargas.
0.286 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.284 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.284 — Jesse Winker batting against Nick Pivetta.

Marte owns the longest streak in the majors right now, but was hit on the hand by a pitch on Wednesday. He did not play Thursday night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.352, 0.750 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.314, 0.742 — Albert Almora batting against Luke Weaver.
0.318, 0.735 — Scooter Gennett batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.332, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.328, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.304, 0.724 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.320, 0.715 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.295, 0.712 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.295, 0.712 — Javier Baez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.274, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.299, 0.711 — Jose Peraza batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286, 0.710 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.306, 0.708 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.274, 0.706 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.306, 0.703 — Jon Jay batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280, 0.702 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.316, 0.701 — Austin Meadows batting against Jason Vargas.
0.251, 0.699 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Manaea.
0.261, 0.698 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.256, 0.697 — Daniel Murphy batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.312, 0.696 — Elias Diaz batting against Jason Vargas.

Dickerson is the consensus first choice, Altuve the consensus second choice. Altuve may also be injured, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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