Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.295 — Nolan Arenado batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Eflin.
0.292 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.291 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.289 — Gerardo Parra batting against Frankie Montas.
0.288 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.288 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.288 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.287 — Nick Markakis batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.286 — Jean Segura batting against Felix Pena.
0.285 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.283 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jose Urena.
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.281 — Leury Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.277 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Eflin.
0.277 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nathan Eovaldi.

Brantley is three for eight career against Zimmermann. Jose Ramirez is 5 for 10.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.733 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.286, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Felix Pena.
0.296, 0.724 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294, 0.723 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Eflin.
0.288, 0.720 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.295, 0.717 — Nolan Arenado batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.714 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.291, 0.714 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.292, 0.711 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.289, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Frankie Montas.
0.281, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.290, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.284, 0.705 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.270, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Pena.
0.256, 0.703 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.275, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Minor.
0.286, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.702 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.287, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283, 0.700 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286, 0.700 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.700 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Eflin.

Jose Altuve had the highest probability, but he was placed on the 10-day disabled list overnight. So Brantley is the unanimous first choice, with Dickerson the unanimous second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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