Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.312 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brian Johnson.
0.306 — Joey Wendle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.303 — Corey Dickerson batting against Steven Matz.
0.302 — Mallex Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Albert Almora batting against Zachary Godley.
0.293 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Dylan Covey.
0.292 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.291 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Alex Cobb.
0.286 — Starling Marte batting against Steven Matz.
0.283 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jakob Junis.
0.281 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.281 — C.J. Cron batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280 — Javier Baez batting against Zachary Godley.
0.279 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.278 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.277 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.276 — Joe Mauer batting against Brian Johnson.
0.274 — Chad Pinder batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.273 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sonny Gray.
0.272 — Adam Moore batting against Alex Cobb.
0.272 — Matt Kemp batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.271 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Bartolo Colon.

Looks like a good day for the Rays against their old teammate.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.736 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301, 0.734 — Albert Almora batting against Zachary Godley.
0.312, 0.733 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brian Johnson.
0.303, 0.729 — Corey Dickerson batting against Steven Matz.
0.277, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.278, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.281, 0.712 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.293, 0.710 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Dylan Covey.
0.286, 0.710 — Starling Marte batting against Steven Matz.
0.272, 0.709 — Matt Kemp batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.306, 0.701 — Joey Wendle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280, 0.700 — Javier Baez batting against Zachary Godley.
0.283, 0.698 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jakob Junis.
0.302, 0.696 — Mallex Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.270, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.265, 0.694 — Avisail Garcia batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.292, 0.694 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.273, 0.694 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sonny Gray.
0.261, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.266, 0.691 — Freddie Freeman batting against Rich Hill.
0.266, 0.690 — Christian Yelich batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.277, 0.689 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.246, 0.688 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.263, 0.686 — Starlin Castro batting against Stephen Strasburg.

Duffy is the unanimous first pick with Rosario the consensus second pick. Duffy should be a good streak extending player as he collects a lot of hits without drawing a lot of walks.

Note that both a Hunter and a Ranger are scheduled to start games today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2A8qzhT