Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks (Given that there is only one game, here is the top ten):

0.276 — Albert Almora batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.264 — Jose Martinez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.254 — Javier Baez batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.252 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.252 — Yadier Molina batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.241 — Yairo Munoz batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.237 — Paul DeJong batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.235 — Harrison Bader batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.233 — Jason Heyward batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.229 — Willson Contreras batting against Carlos Martinez.

Almora is currently not on the Cubs roster as he was placed on the bereavement list, but should be back tonight. It looks like Cardinals players have a better chance of getting a hit than Cubs players tonight.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.276, 0.718 — Albert Almora batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.264, 0.691 — Jose Martinez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.254, 0.682 — Javier Baez batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.252, 0.675 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.252, 0.672 — Yadier Molina batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.237, 0.652 — Paul DeJong batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.241, 0.645 — Yairo Munoz batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.229, 0.641 — Willson Contreras batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.233, 0.640 — Jason Heyward batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.227, 0.639 — Kris Bryant batting against Carlos Martinez.

Almora is the only player with a decent probability today. You may want to skip this game and wait for the full slate on Friday.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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