Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.343 — Michael Brantley batting against Martin Perez.
0.330 — Jose Ramirez batting against Martin Perez.
0.316 — Francisco Lindor batting against Martin Perez.
0.314 — Tyler Naquin batting against Martin Perez.
0.306 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.304 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.294 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.291 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.289 — Yonder Alonso batting against Martin Perez.
0.288 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.287 — Miguel Andujar batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against James Shields.
0.285 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.284 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.282 — Matt Kemp batting against Wade Miley.
0.281 — Jose Peraza batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.280 — Starling Marte batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.279 — Leury Garcia batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.277 — Manny Machado batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.276 — A.J. Pollock batting against German Marquez.
0.276 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Boyd.
0.276 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.275 — Rajai Davis batting against Martin Perez.
0.275 — Jon Jay batting against German Marquez.
0.275 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Noah Syndergaard.

Martin Perez only threw 29 1/3 innings this season, so he looks this bad despite his hit average allowed being regressed toward the mean for 2018. Right-handed batters are destroying him to a .386/.449/.644 slash line. It’s a good day to pick a right-handed batting Indians hitter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.343, 0.748 — Michael Brantley batting against Martin Perez.
0.305, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.330, 0.737 — Jose Ramirez batting against Martin Perez.
0.287, 0.731 — Jean Segura batting against James Shields.
0.304, 0.731 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.291, 0.724 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.288, 0.720 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.276, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.272, 0.717 — Albert Almora batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.276, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Boyd.
0.294, 0.713 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.316, 0.713 — Francisco Lindor batting against Martin Perez.
0.314, 0.710 — Tyler Naquin batting against Martin Perez.
0.274, 0.709 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.282, 0.709 — Matt Kemp batting against Wade Miley.
0.285, 0.704 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.281, 0.700 — Jose Peraza batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.274, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against David Price.
0.270, 0.700 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.255, 0.700 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.264, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against James Shields.
0.280, 0.699 — Starling Marte batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.284, 0.699 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.262, 0.698 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.261, 0.697 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
0.265, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Robbie Ray.
0.281, 0.697 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Richard.

The NN isn’t quite as impressed with the Indians against Perez, but Michael Brantley and Jose Altuve tie for highest probability of a hit. Brantley is a left-handed batter, however, so you may want to think about whom to pick. Jose Ramirez is the consensus second choice. Brantley is 2 for 4 career against Perez, with two strikeouts. Ramirez is 1 for 5 with no strikeouts.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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