Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Jean Segura batting against Dylan Covey.
0.324 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320 — Michael Brantley batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.317 — Dee Gordon batting against Dylan Covey.
0.314 — Jose Altuve batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.313 — Albert Almora batting against Luke Weaver.
0.312 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.307 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Fiers.
0.306 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.303 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brian Johnson.
0.301 — Maikel Franco batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.300 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.300 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.298 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jakob Junis.
0.297 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.296 — Francisco Lindor batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.294 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Dylan Covey.
0.293 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293 — Devon Travis batting against Alex Cobb.
0.292 — Tyler Naquin batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.292 — Nick Williams batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.291 — Matt M Duffy batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.288 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Javier Baez batting against Luke Weaver.

Yesterday, Brantley was the consensus first pick, then went 0 for 6 in an extra-inning game. Joey Gallo, who ranked at the bottom of the lists, picked up two hits. It’s a good example of the random nature of baseball. It also drives home the point that the worst hitter in the game will get at least one hit in about half his games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.757 — Jean Segura batting against Dylan Covey.
0.314, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.313, 0.742 — Albert Almora batting against Luke Weaver.
0.320, 0.737 — Michael Brantley batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.317, 0.735 — Dee Gordon batting against Dylan Covey.
0.306, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.312, 0.731 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.300, 0.728 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.307, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Fiers.
0.298, 0.725 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jakob Junis.
0.324, 0.722 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.291, 0.717 — Matt M Duffy batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.297, 0.717 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.301, 0.716 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brian Johnson.
0.274, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Nick Kingham.
0.280, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zachary Godley.
0.283, 0.708 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zachary Godley.
0.282, 0.707 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zachary Godley.
0.296, 0.703 — Francisco Lindor batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.242, 0.703 — Albert Almora batting against John Gant.
0.288, 0.703 — Javier Baez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.283, 0.703 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.274, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zachary Godley.
0.287, 0.700 — Adam Jones batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.294, 0.699 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Dylan Covey.
0.292, 0.699 — Tyler Naquin batting against Bartolo Colon.

Jean Segura is the unanimous first choice, with Brantley the consensus second choice. Note the big difference between the two systems today comes from the Rockies against Godley. Log5 list no Rockies, the NN four. This is due to the NN taking account of the park.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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