Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Nick Castellanos batting against Homer Bailey.
0.313 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.308 — Jose Iglesias batting against Homer Bailey.
0.308 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306 — John Hicks batting against Homer Bailey.
0.304 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.299 — Jose Martinez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.295 — Yadier Molina batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.291 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.290 — Victor Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.287 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.286 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.284 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283 — Odubel Herrera batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.283 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.281 — Yairo Munoz batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — Victor Reyes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.280 — Leonys Martin batting against Homer Bailey.
0.279 — James Adduci batting against Homer Bailey.
0.278 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.278 — Alex Bregman batting against Mike Leake.

Bailey pitched poorly this season, but came back after missing two months with a pretty good start his last time out. Still, it may be a good day for the Tigers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.304, 0.734 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.332, 0.733 — Nick Castellanos batting against Homer Bailey.
0.313, 0.729 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.286, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.308, 0.717 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.276, 0.714 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.299, 0.714 — Jose Martinez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.289, 0.711 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.271, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Matt Boyd.
0.273, 0.709 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.304, 0.709 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283, 0.708 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.286, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.295, 0.706 — Yadier Molina batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.276, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kolby Allard.
0.274, 0.704 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.297, 0.703 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.275, 0.702 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.263, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.308, 0.701 — Jose Iglesias batting against Homer Bailey.
0.241, 0.700 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton.
0.276, 0.699 — Matt Kemp batting against Wade Miley.
0.276, 0.699 — Christian Yelich batting against Walker Buehler.
0.287, 0.698 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.306, 0.698 — John Hicks batting against Homer Bailey.
0.273, 0.698 — Matt M Duffy batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.274, 0.698 — Adrian Beltre batting against Zachary Godley.
0.276, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Wade Miley.

Almora pops to the top of the list, but he almost never plays when the NN says he’s most likely to get a hit. Castellanos and Yuli Gurriel are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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