Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.324 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.321 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.317 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.311 — Michael Brantley batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.308 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Jesse Winker batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305 — Jose Ramirez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.303 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.302 — Mookie Betts batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.301 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301 — Maikel Franco batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.300 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.299 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.294 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292 — Leury Garcia batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.292 — Nick Williams batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.291 — Scott Schebler batting against Ivan Nova.
0.290 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Archer.
0.290 — Austin Meadows batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290 — Francisco Lindor batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.288 — Matt Kemp batting against Brent Suter.
0.288 — Tyler Naquin batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Gennett hits Nova poorly, 2 for 17 with two walks. He only struck out twice, however, so he puts the ball in play, a prerequisite for getting a hit. Note that the Padres and Phillies are playing a double header so make sure you are picking players in those games against the desired pitcher.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.749 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.317, 0.731 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.287, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.300, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.292, 0.727 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.311, 0.727 — Michael Brantley batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.302, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.321, 0.724 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305, 0.723 — Jose Ramirez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.299, 0.722 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.324, 0.722 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.287, 0.719 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brad Keller.
0.301, 0.715 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290, 0.711 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Archer.
0.273, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.288, 0.710 — Matt Kemp batting against Brent Suter.
0.278, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.280, 0.706 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
0.269, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.292, 0.705 — Leury Garcia batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.307, 0.704 — Jesse Winker batting against Ivan Nova.
0.277, 0.703 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zack Greinke.
0.282, 0.702 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Archer.
0.281, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting against Brent Suter.

Gennett is the unanimous choice, with Corey Dickerson the consensus second choice. That double down gives you just one game to watch! There is a lot of rain in the forecast today in the east, so keep an eye on postponements as well.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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