Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Jose Altuve batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.324 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.320 — Jed Lowrie batting against Martin Perez.
0.314 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland.
0.304 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Martin Perez.
0.300 — Chad Pinder batting against Martin Perez.
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Leake.
0.297 — Jose Martinez batting against Sal Romano.
0.297 — Nick S Martini batting against Martin Perez.
0.297 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Martin Perez.
0.294 — Marcus Semien batting against Martin Perez.
0.293 — Dee Gordon batting against Derek Holland.
0.293 — Michael Brantley batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.292 — Matt Chapman batting against Martin Perez.
0.291 — Mark Canha batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Khristopher Davis batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Brandon Crawford batting against Mike Leake.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.289 — Dustin Fowler batting against Martin Perez.
0.288 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.287 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Mike Leake.
0.286 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.286 — Alex Bregman batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Josh Reddick batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Yadier Molina batting against Sal Romano.
0.285 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.

Everybody on the Athletics gets a hit against Martin Perez! Lowrie and Davis certainly hit well against him. The Astros against Gray look like a good bet, too.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.344, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.314, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland.
0.324, 0.741 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.283, 0.720 — Albert Almora batting against Robbie Ray.
0.293, 0.718 — Dee Gordon batting against Derek Holland.
0.286, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.293, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289, 0.718 — Eddie Rosario batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.288, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.297, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Sal Romano.
0.283, 0.709 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.300, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Leake.
0.285, 0.708 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.320, 0.706 — Jed Lowrie batting against Martin Perez.
0.265, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.273, 0.698 — Nick Castellanos batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.285, 0.698 — Yadier Molina batting against Sal Romano.
0.265, 0.697 — Matt M Duffy batting against Luis Cessa.
0.281, 0.696 — Christian Yelich batting against Tanner Roark.
0.267, 0.696 — Avisail Garcia batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.285, 0.695 — Josh Reddick batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.254, 0.694 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.273, 0.692 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tanner Roark.
0.279, 0.691 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Sal Romano.
0.277, 0.690 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clayton Richard.

Altuve is the unanimous first pick, with Yuli Gurriel the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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