Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Have Some Fun

MLB is endorsing players having fun during the game:

MLB released an advertisement ahead of Tuesday’s postseason opener denouncing the anti-bat flip attitudes of many baseball traditionalists.

“Don’t stop and stare. Don’t flip your bat. Respect the jersey,” says a narrator at the start. Meanwhile, the commercial shows Giancarlo Stanton admiring a lengthy home run, Carlos Correa tossing his bat, Mookie Betts flexing and Yasiel Puig wagging his tongue after a daring headfirst slide.

It also includes Atlanta rookie Ronald Acuna Jr. celebrating a home run against the Marlins. Acuna was plunked by Miami’s Jose Urena during his impressive five-game homer streak this season, an incident that put baseball’s unwritten rules back under the microscope.

After Acuna, the ad cuts to Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey sports a backward baseball cap, just like he did as the fresh face of baseball in the early 1990s.

“No more talk,” Griffey says. “Let the kids play.”

I like this. I also believe it means that enough of the traditionalists are gone that MLB feels it can safely push in that direction. Good for them.



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Whalley District in Surrey

Whalley District by Tien Sher Group of Companies is new condo development located in Surrey. Whalley District will be a community of three concrete high-rises, mid-rise, commercial and outdoor amenities, with a total of 1119 new homes. The Phase 1 development will boast 7,567 sq ft of indoor amenity space located throughout the residential development. A 3,385-sq-ft lounge/entertainment room on the third floor will consist of a kitchen, multiple seating areas, a separate meeting room, and washrooms.

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2018 NLDS Preview, Braves Versus Dodgers

The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers begin their NLDS on Thursday. Take a look at how the offenses compare:

Team Offense, 2018, (NL Ranks)
Statistic Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers
Runs/Game 4.69 (3rd-T) 4.93 (1st)
Batting Avg. .257 (2nd) .250 (8th)
OBP .324 (5th) .333 (2nd-T)
Slugging Pct. .417 (5th) .442 (1st)
Home Runs 175 (8th) 235 (1st)
Stolen Base % 71% (8th) 76% (4th)

 

The Braves batting average figured greatly in their scoring. In general, on-base average and slugging percentage are a much better indication of the run scoring ability of an offense. The Dodgers, first in runs scored, did very well in those two categories, but posted a poor batting average. The Braves hit well with men on base, recording a higher BA and much more power in that situation, and with men in scoring position. The Braves made the most of their opportunities. The Dodgers were much more even over their situations, and actually hit for less power with men on base.

The Dodgers could afford that since they powered the ball so much. The first eight slots in the batting order each hit at least 20 home runs, with slots one and two each delivering 33 homers. Los Angeles can pop the ball out of the park at any time.

The pitching stacks up this way:

Team Pitching, (NL Ranks)
Statistic Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers
Earned Run Avg. 3.75 (5th) 3.38 (1st)
Runs Allowed/Game 4.06 (5th) 3.74 (1st)
Strikeouts per 9 IP 8.8 (5th-T) 9.5 (1st)
Walks per 9 IP 3.9 (15th) 2.6 (1st)
Home Runs per 200 IP 21.0 (2nd) 24.3 (8th-T)
BABIP .281 (1st) .286 (3rd)

 

Note that the Dodgers sit at the top of the list in both run scoring and run prevention. Yet their record is only slighlty better than the Braves, third in runs per game and 5th in runs allowed per game. While the Braves played two games worse than expected based on their runs scored and allowed, the Dodgers played ten games worse. It seems to be based on those numbers the Dodgers should be considered the superior team.

One thing to watch in this series is the Dodgers strikeout pitchers against the Braves hitters. Atlanta struck out the third fewest times in the NL, which helped the offense to a great high ranked BA. Teams that put the ball in play can thwart high strikeout teams as more pressure is put on the defense. Given their low BABIPs, both teams appear to be good at stopping batted balls from becoming hits.

On the other side, the Braves pitchers issue a ton of walks, and the Dodgers batters draw a ton of walks. Unlike the strength against strength of the strikeouts, the walks give the Dodgers offense an advantage. When lots of men get on base, they eventually come around to score.

I like the Dodgers in this series. Their good defense should hold down the Atlanta hits, while the Dodgers offense walks their way to a series win.



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Playoffs Today

The 2018 MLB Post Season gets underway with the Rockies visiting the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game. It looks like Kyle Freeland will take on Jon Lester.

Freeland made an impressive improvement in his strikeout rate this season. In 2017, he struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings, rather low by today’s standards. In 2018, he increased that to 7.7 K per 9 IP, still a bit low, but an impressive gain. In the minors his rate was more like his 2017 number. What changed? At FanGraphs, it looks like he greatly de-emphasized his sinker in favor of more four-seam fastballs and more change-ups. As one might expect, his ground ball rate went down, his fly ball rate went up, but he wasn’t hammered with home runs. I suspect he was saving the sinker for when he really needed a double play. He induced 24 GDPs, second highest in the majors.

In addition, a good four-seam fastball, thrown high in the strike zone, will induce swings and misses and pop ups as the ball stays up more than the batter anticipates. A good change up will also induce some swings and misses. It’s a nice adjustment at this stage of Freeland’s development.

Lester gave up hits, home runs, and walks at about the same rate as in 2017, but his K rate dropped from a great 9.0 per 9 IP to 7.4 K per 9 IP. All things being equal, his ERA should have rose, but instead it dropped from 4.33 to 3.32. His FIP went from 4.10 to 4.40 and his xFIP went from 3.85 to 4.43. Part of it might have been better defense, as his BABIP dropped from .310 to .290. He allowed a .357 slugging percentage with men on base, so runners did not move a long distance against him on hits. Opponents needed a longer offensive sequence to score.

Enjoy!



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Monday, October 1, 2018

Sales And Sales Management Is Broken

I have to admit being consumed with CSO Insights latest Sales Performance Report.  If you haven’t had the opportunity to read it, make sure you take the time to download and study it.  It’s filled with fascinating analysis, each chart presents huge opportunities for performance improvement.

The chart I keep coming back to is their 2018 SRP Matrix, reproduced below:

Usually, as we look at charts like this, we focus on comparing Level 1, Level 2, Level 3 performances, perhaps being somewhat self-congratulatory it we are at a Level 3.  There are profound differences between poor performers and top performers in the percent of people making quota and win rates of forecast deals.

Ironically, the difference in poor performers and top performers in making plan is probably within the boundary of survey error, even if it isn’t the difference is only 2.1%.

But, as one looks at the data, one can’t help being struck by the huge wastes built into selling.  It begs the the question, “Would we tolerate the same level of waste or non performance in any other part of the organization?”  Clearly, the answer is, “Absolutely not!”  But why do we let this happen in sales (and my guess in marketing.)?

Complex sales is unlikely to be as predictive (even with AI) as a manufacturing process.  There are just to many opportunities for variance that are outside the control of sales.

But that’s not an excuse for the level of “waste” we see in sales.

Let’s focus our discussion on Level 2 performance–since that’s right in the middle and since the majority of organizations fall into that performance level.  But the same discussion applies to Levels 1 and 3.

We see, organizationally, most of these organizations are actually making their overall goal.  94% is a very high level!

But as we go deeper, that attainment is a result of only 54% of sales people making or exceeding their own goals.  This is a little difficult to assess, part of it is impacted by the games managers play in setting quotas.  A certain amount of over-assignment is necessary, we know 100% of people won’t make their individual goals, but too often, the numbers are arbitrary or way too high.  But beyond that, there are other challenges.  What’s happening with the other 46%?  Why are so many not making their goals?

Imagine the overall revenue growth and performance improvement we would get if we could get more of them meeting their goals?  While 94% are meeting their goals, one could/should argue they are dramatically underperforming the potential, they should be over-achieving their goals.

Alternatively, if we are in a low/slow growth market, we could restructure to reduce what we are spending on selling–accomplishing the same results with fewer people, at significantly less cost.

But then we drill deeper into the data.  We win only 46.2% of forecast deals!  Are you as astounded as me?  That’s forecast deals!  These are deals well into the buying/selling process.  They are deals that sales people and sales managers have high certainty about they will be won–enough to commit to a forecast!  How are we so far off?  53.8% of the deals we are “certain” we win, we actually lose or the customer doesn’t reach a decision.

Piling on, these are only the deals we forecast we will win.  But then there are all the other deals that we work, that we compete on, that we invest our time on.  These, probably, represent the majority of sales time and resources, since what we forecast is a small part of what we compete in.

Imagine the sheer amount of resource dedicated to failure.  Imagine either harnessing that resource to be more successful, or in the least balancing our spending on selling.

It seems that trying to understand what causes these huge failure rates and massive overspending should be the focus of management.  We should be asking ourselves:

Why are we making plan, yet 46% of our people aren’t?  What can we do do reduce that number?  What would our performance and growth be if rather than accepting 54% of our people making plan, we raised it to 75%?  What would that mean to our investors and shareholders?  What would that mean to our market share?

Why are we actually winning only 46.2% of our forecast deals?  What happens to the 53.8% of the deals we thought we were going to win, but didn’t?  How can we reduce this number?  How do we win more of what we forecast?

Finding the answers to these questions  can lead us into profound improvements in sales performance and productivity.

This analysis is tough, it requires deep understanding of what our people are actually doing and where we can improve performance.  It means both sales managers, sales ops, and sales enablement need to do deep analysis.

Instead of doing this analysis, trying to assess these performance gaps and what causes them, instead, we focus on doing more.  We accept these performance levels as though they are fundamental laws of physics.  Simplistically, to reach higher levels of sales, we simply have to do more of everything that we are currently doing—not look at how we do it much better.

We drive for increased activity levels—more emails, more calls, more meetings.  We drive for more content, more leads, more tools.  If doing X critical activities produces certain results, the thought is, to increase results by 20%, we simply increase X activities by 20%.

We don’t assess non-performance or non performers.  The data shows only 5.4% of our sales turnover is involuntary or performance related.  But if we are performing so poorly, might it be that a much larger number of our people aren’t performing?

I don’t understand the focus on more and the absence of focus on performance.

Based on this data, it appears we are under exploiting what we already have.  It seems if we just do better at what we already are doing, we have massive opportunity for performance improvement, growth, and over-attainment.



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Best Batter, End of Regular Season

The top five hitters in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings at the end of regular season remain Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Alex Bregman, and Mike Trout. Three of those will continue to be rated based on their post-season games, and I suspect Mookie Betts will move into the top five by end of the World Series.



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End of Season Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date through the end of the 2018 regular season.



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