Playoffs Today

The 2018 MLB Post Season gets underway with the Rockies visiting the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game. It looks like Kyle Freeland will take on Jon Lester.

Freeland made an impressive improvement in his strikeout rate this season. In 2017, he struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings, rather low by today’s standards. In 2018, he increased that to 7.7 K per 9 IP, still a bit low, but an impressive gain. In the minors his rate was more like his 2017 number. What changed? At FanGraphs, it looks like he greatly de-emphasized his sinker in favor of more four-seam fastballs and more change-ups. As one might expect, his ground ball rate went down, his fly ball rate went up, but he wasn’t hammered with home runs. I suspect he was saving the sinker for when he really needed a double play. He induced 24 GDPs, second highest in the majors.

In addition, a good four-seam fastball, thrown high in the strike zone, will induce swings and misses and pop ups as the ball stays up more than the batter anticipates. A good change up will also induce some swings and misses. It’s a nice adjustment at this stage of Freeland’s development.

Lester gave up hits, home runs, and walks at about the same rate as in 2017, but his K rate dropped from a great 9.0 per 9 IP to 7.4 K per 9 IP. All things being equal, his ERA should have rose, but instead it dropped from 4.33 to 3.32. His FIP went from 4.10 to 4.40 and his xFIP went from 3.85 to 4.43. Part of it might have been better defense, as his BABIP dropped from .310 to .290. He allowed a .357 slugging percentage with men on base, so runners did not move a long distance against him on hits. Opponents needed a longer offensive sequence to score.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2DPAlat