I received an e-mail from a friend:
Remind me: assuming for the sake of argument that the Dodgers have a 50% probability of winning each of games 3-7 if necessary, what is the probability, as of now, being down 2-0, that the Dodgers will win the WS? Does history correspond generally to this probability?
You can get this from the binomial distribution, and the answer is 0.1875. I didn’t know the actual percentage, but found this article by Cliff Corcoran at The Athletic:
After all, of the 38 teams that returned home down 0-2 in a World Series, 23 (60 percent) won Game 3, and 14 (37 percent) tied up the Series in Game 4, but just seven (18.4 percent) came all the way back to win the Series.
So it looks like assuming the teams are evenly matched leads to a pretty good prediction.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2OSumGT
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