Trevor Bauer just completed six no-hit innings against Toronto. He walked five and struck out five, with 97 pitches thrown. The Indians lead the Blue Jays 2-0.
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Thursday, April 4, 2019
Games of the Day
The Yankees travel to Baltimore, sending James Paxton against Alex Cobb. This will be Paxton’s third start in Baltimore, where he struck out 15 and walked four in 11 1/3 innings. Cobb tries to right himself after a disappointing season in which he allowed 24 home runs in just 152 1/3 innings.
Toronto visits Cleveland as Aaron Sanchez faces Trevor Bauer. Sanchez, a right-handed pitcher, held left-handed batters to an 0 for 5 in his first start, and allowed just three hits in his five innings of work. Bauer walk one and struck out nine in his first start, allowing just one hit in his seven innings of work.
Enjoy!
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Beat the Streak Picks
For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.288 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.279 — Anthony Rendon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
- 0.270 — Elvis Andrus batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.270 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.269 — Mookie Betts batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.269 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
- 0.263 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.261 — Jose Peraza batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.261 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.261 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tyler Mahle.
- 0.261 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
Martinez has been a good pick so far.
Here are the neural network picks:
- 0.288, 0.709 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.279, 0.687 — Anthony Rendon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
- 0.269, 0.687 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
- 0.270, 0.680 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.269, 0.679 — Mookie Betts batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.270, 0.675 — Elvis Andrus batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.261, 0.675 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tyler Mahle.
- 0.263, 0.670 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson.
- 0.261, 0.669 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
- 0.261, 0.668 — Jose Peraza batting against Jordan Lyles.
It’s all J.D. Martinez! Double down with Anthony Rendon if you like.
I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
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Best Batter Today
Christian Yelich remains at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, but Anthony Rendon cut into his lead a bit. It’s down to about 22 points. Mike Trout is after an off day, J.D.Martinez stands fourth, and Bryce Harper cracks the top five after an excellent series in Washington.
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Topsy Turvy
One of the nice things about the first week of the season is that it offers hope. The American League right now is a bit upside down. The Orioles and Blue Jays are ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox. I expected the first place Rays to be a good team, but the Orioles and Blue Jays getting off to a good start in a rebuilding year may help fans feel things are moving in the right direction.
The Tigers are ahead of the Indians. The Tigers especially looked like a poor team going into the season. Matt Boyd suddenly found his strikeout pitch, and the Tigers are on the right side of .500 after a week.
The Mariners off-season moves could have gone either way. They appeared to tear down and rebuild at the same time, and so far it worked for them. The Rangers, another team that seemed not to be trying, are ahead of the 2-5 Astros.
I doubt this will hold up over the next few weeks. Bad major league teams are still major league teams, however, and you never know when one is going to gel faster than expected.
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Update Delayed
I am having technical difficulties with the data today. I will update the Day by Day Database as soon as possible.
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