Thursday, April 4, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Martinez has been a good pick so far.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.288, 0.709 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.279, 0.687 — Anthony Rendon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.269, 0.687 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
  • 0.270, 0.680 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.269, 0.679 — Mookie Betts batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.270, 0.675 — Elvis Andrus batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.261, 0.675 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.263, 0.670 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.261, 0.669 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jakob Junis.
  • 0.261, 0.668 — Jose Peraza batting against Jordan Lyles.

It’s all J.D. Martinez! Double down with Anthony Rendon if you like.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!



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