Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.298 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.291 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.286 — Jose Altuve batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.286 — David Fletcher batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.283 — Jose Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
• 0.281 — Cody Bellinger batting against Brandon Woodruff.
• 0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.279 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.279 — Brian Goodwin batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.279 — Jeff McNeil batting against Dakota Hudson.

Simmons is hitting .274, but with just one walk in 85 PA. So while that gives him a very low OBP, it does give him a good hit average, especially relative to the league. Leake is similar, walking just four batters of the 102 he’s faced. Opponents are hitting .299 against him.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.286, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.283, 0.709 — Jose Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
• 0.298, 0.705 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.280, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.278, 0.701 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.276, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
• 0.291, 0.699 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.260, 0.698 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
• 0.279, 0.698 — Jeff McNeil batting against Dakota Hudson.
• 0.267, 0.697 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Chatwood.

Altuve comes out on top in this list due to his high three-year hit average. He is tied with Simmons for consensus first pick. It seems like a good day to double down.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2GxXygT