Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.300 — Jean Segura batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.299 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
• 0.297 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.292 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.282 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.281 — Adam Jones batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.277 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.274 — Christian Yelich batting against Ross Stripling.
• 0.272 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.

Urena allowed a .415 BABIP so far this season, giving up 24 hits in 13 innings. For his career, his BABIP against stands at .280, so his start in 2019 is way out of line with his career. Segura owns a .370 BABIP this season, which is a big reason the two match up so well.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.297, 0.726 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.299, 0.717 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
• 0.292, 0.715 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.300, 0.714 — Jean Segura batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.282, 0.702 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.268, 0.701 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jameson Taillon.
• 0.281, 0.701 — Adam Jones batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.280, 0.700 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.274, 0.697 — Christian Yelich batting against Ross Stripling.
• 0.264, 0.696 — J.D. Martinez batting against John Means.
• 0.259, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.

The NN does not weigh the current year as highly as the three-year stats, so Segura drops under this calculation. Altuve is 1 for 4 with a walk and two K against Gonzales. Altuve is the consensus first pick, Andrus the consensus second pick. Andrus has a decent history against Anderson, 7 for 25 with three walks and six strikeouts.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2GdPDE0