Offense in 2019 remains ahead of 2018 after three full weeks. In 2018 (all stats are through three full weeks in each season), game averaged 8.83 runs per game. In 2019, that’s up to 9.23 runs per game. The surge is entirely due to home runs, averaging 2.66 per game this season compared to 2.13 per game last year. Players are trading lower value hits for home runs, as other hits dropped from 14.40 last season to 13.84 this year. So HR are +0.53 per game, other hits are -0.56 per game. Walks are down slightly, so overall players on base are down slightly, but the great power overwhelms that.
What is fascinating so far is that the power surge comes with a level strikeout rate. One needs to go out the hundreds place to see that Ks went up from 17.7 per game to 17.8 per game.
Could this be the point where the strikeout paradox breaks? Strikeouts are good for pitchers, since they prevent hits by taking away the luck of putting balls in play. Strikeout are good for batters, as players who strike out at high rates tend to be good power hitters. There is a mixture here; at one end there is Mike Trout and Joey Votto, great all-around hitters despite the strikeouts. At the other end are Joey Gallo and Jorge Soler, high K hitters who make a lot of outs.
Over time, the strikeout rate rises as power for batters competes with power for pitchers. It’s possible, however, that there is a limit to this rise. Maybe there are just enough situations in games where the need to put the bat on the ball exceeds the need to hit for power. Maybe the Ted Williams swing (in the plane of the flight of the pitch) is really better than the Alex Rodriguez swing (down at the ball). If the launch angle evolution breaks the strikeout to power dynamic, we’ll have a better game.
Stay tuned.
You can follow the weekly runs per game compared to recent seasons on this spreadsheet.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2W0yPH4
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