Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.304 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.291 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.290 — J.D. Martinez batting against Andrew Cashner.
• 0.285 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
• 0.283 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.279 — Tyler Naquin batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.278 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.276 — Gleyber Torres batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.276 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.274 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Felix Hernandez.

Nova has always been a fairly low strikeout pitcher, which means he gives up more hits than innings. So far this season he allowed 13 hits in nine innings. LeMahieu is off to a great start, hitting .439 and striking out very little. They seem to be a match made in heaven, as LeMahieu is five for seven career against Nova.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.304, 0.718 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.285, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
• 0.290, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Andrew Cashner.
• 0.291, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.271, 0.701 — Anthony Rendon batting against Chris Archer.
• 0.272, 0.696 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Estrada.
• 0.261, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Archer.
• 0.276, 0.695 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.274, 0.695 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Felix Hernandez.
• 0.272, 0.694 — David Peralta batting against Matt Strahm.

The two systems agree on LeMahieu, with Altuve, Martinez, and Freeman all tied for consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Kz20jp