Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.304 — Anthony Rendon batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.289 — Howie Kendrick batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.281 — David Peralta batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.277 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jeff Hoffman.
• 0.273 — Adam Jones batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.271 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.271 — Adam C Eaton batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.270 — Yan Gomes batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.270 — Juan Soto batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.270 — Victor Robles batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.270 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Nick Pivetta.

Pivetta allowed 17 hits in nine innnings this season with just two walks, so even with regression his hit average allowed is high. He also has a high long-term hit average, so with the league right now at .219, this predictor shows most hitters doing well against him. Note that Rendon is six for 12 against Pivetta with three home runs, a walk and no strikeouts.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.304, 0.714 — Anthony Rendon batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.277, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jeff Hoffman.
• 0.289, 0.703 — Howie Kendrick batting against Nick Pivetta.
• 0.281, 0.703 — David Peralta batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.268, 0.697 — Jean Segura batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
• 0.261, 0.693 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
• 0.273, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.262, 0.689 — Whit Merrifield batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.269, 0.688 — Nick Markakis batting against Jeff Hoffman.
• 0.261, 0.683 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Felix Pena.
• 0.255, 0.683 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.260, 0.683 — Christian Yelich batting against Felix Pena.

Anthony Rendon, who is near the top of the list of current hit streaks, is the unanimous first choice. Kendrick would be the consensus second choice.

Note that Whit Merrifield is listed as having a 10-game hit streak, although some consider him having a 30-game hit streak. To me a hit streak is in season. Taking six months off then picking up again is not the same as playing every day and getting a hit. That said, he has hit in 30 straight regular season games, and would be a good pick any day.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2uXhiDO