Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.305 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.297 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.295 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.293 — Adam C Eaton batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.287 — Clint Frazier batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.282 — Christian Yelich batting against Jack Flaherty.
• 0.277 — Tim Anderson batting against David Hess.
• 0.274 — Gleyber Torres batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.272 — Andrelton Simmons batting against J.A. Happ.
• 0.270 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Tyler Anderson.

Rendon is day to day after a hit by pitch on Saturday. Kendrick would be the likely replacement at third base. Yelich destroyed the Cardinals so far this season, 12 for 24 with eight home runs and eight walks.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.305, 0.720 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.297, 0.720 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.266, 0.704 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
• 0.293, 0.703 — Adam C Eaton batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.295, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.266, 0.699 — David Peralta batting against Joe Musgrove.
• 0.282, 0.699 — Christian Yelich batting against Jack Flaherty.
• 0.265, 0.696 — Jose Martinez batting against Adrian Houser.
• 0.277, 0.688 — Tim Anderson batting against David Hess.
• 0.259, 0.686 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jake Arrieta.

The two systems agree on the top two. Rendon is two for five against Anderson with a walk and two strikeouts. Kendrick is three for eleven with one walk and three strikeouts. J.D. Martinez owns an 11 game hit streak, the longest active streak in baseball.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Ix1ArX