Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.293 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.283 — Freddy Galvis batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.274 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ervin Santana.
• 0.270 — Tim Anderson batting against Heath Fillmyer.
• 0.269 — Trey Mancini batting against Hector Velazquez.
• 0.268 — Jean Segura batting against Noah Syndergaard.
• 0.268 — Richard Urena batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.268 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.266 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.264 — Mookie Betts batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.264 — Elvis Andrus batting against Trevor Cahill.

Straily faced 28 batter this season and allowed 13 hits. Seven of those were for extra bases. Note that if you are going to take anyone from this game, the start time in Boston today is 11:00 AM, and the weather is poor here in New England.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.293, 0.715 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.268, 0.699 — Jean Segura batting against Noah Syndergaard.
• 0.274, 0.697 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ervin Santana.
• 0.264, 0.692 — Elvis Andrus batting against Trevor Cahill.
• 0.283, 0.683 — Freddy Galvis batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.255, 0.679 — Christian Yelich batting against Dakota Hudson.
• 0.251, 0.678 — Wilson Ramos batting against Aaron Nola.
• 0.270, 0.675 — Tim Anderson batting against Heath Fillmyer.
• 0.264, 0.675 — Mookie Betts batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.256, 0.673 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
• 0.269, 0.673 — Trey Mancini batting against Hector Velazquez.

If the Boston game is rained out, I would be tempted to pick Whit Merrifield, who is the consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2V1EzDf