Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.297 — Whit Merrifield batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.276 — Adalberto Mondesi batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.271 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jose Quintana.
• 0.270 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.267 — David Peralta batting against Pedro Avila.
• 0.264 — Terrance Gore batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.264 — Freddie Freeman batting against Steven Matz.
• 0.263 — Dee Gordon batting against Jorge Lopez.
• 0.259 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jonathan Gray.
• 0.259 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.259 — Adam Jones batting against Pedro Avila .

Merrifield is tied for the longest current hit streak in the majors, eleven games. He’s hit in his last 31 games dating back to last season. He owns an impressive .326/.379/.500 slash line in that time, although his power comes from the speed long hits, with nine doubles and four triples among his extra-base hits to go with two home runs.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.297, 0.715 — Whit Merrifield batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.270, 0.703 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.258, 0.695 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Sanchez.
• 0.267, 0.694 — David Peralta batting against Pedro Avila .
• 0.264, 0.689 — Freddie Freeman batting against Steven Matz.
• 0.271, 0.687 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jose Quintana.
• 0.263, 0.685 — Dee Gordon batting against Jorge Lopez.
• 0.259, 0.683 — Adam Jones batting against Pedro Avila .
• 0.259, 0.681 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.276, 0.677 — Adalberto Mondesi batting against Mike Leake.

The two systems agree on Merrifield, with Wilson Ramos the consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Z49Lkv