Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Longoria on Pitchers

Evan Longoria discusses the toughest pitchers he faces in the AL East. A sample, on Chris Sale:

People hear the word command and they think about pitch — about working the strike zone or painting the corners. But command is just as much about velocity as it as about placement. Every now and then you’ll see a guy who can throw a slider from 82 to 88 mph, or who has an 87-mph changeup that he can drop down to 82 mph when he wants to bury it.

Sale has the ability to vary speed like that with all of his pitches — especially his fastball, which he can throw anywhere from 89 to 99 mph.

Interesting throughout.



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Multi Indians

The Cleveland Indians overcame a 9-2 deficit to beat the Rangers 15-9 Monday night. All nine Indians starters collected hits, with eight of them collecting multiple hits. That’s the third time this season at eight starters recorded multiple hits in the same game. The Twins accomplished this on 6/13, and the White Sox on 5/20. Maybe the AL Central should be renamed Multi-hit Central!

Jason Kipnis was the only Indians starter with just one hit. His poor season continues, making one wonder if he really recovered from the right shoulder injury that put him on the disabled list to start the season.

Since 1957, the start of the Day by Day Database, 14 times teams produced multiple hits from all nine starters. Today is the anniversary of the last time it happened, as the Dodgers beat the Twins 15-0.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain
0.345 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain
0.326 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Cain
0.322 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robert Gsellman
0.321 — Justin Turner batting against Jesse Chavez
0.320 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Gsellman
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Aaron Nola
0.315 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman
0.313 — Ian Desmond batting against Matt Cain
0.311 — Mark Reynolds batting against Matt Cain

Over the three years that are considered in this calculation, Matt Cain allowed a .304/.365/.507 slash line. He gives up lots of hits without walking a lot of batters. This game is in San Francisco, and the Rockies in general don’t hit as well on the road, but it should be a good night to pick your favorite Rockies batter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.350, 0.764 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain.
0.345, 0.762 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain.
0.298, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.315, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Aaron Nola.
0.321, 0.745 — Justin Turner batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.320, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.326, 0.735 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Cain.
0.309, 0.733 — Corey Dickerson batting against Trevor Williams.
0.322, 0.729 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.315, 0.729 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman.

The NN agrees on the top two spots, and also likes the Marlins against Gsellman. It’s a Charlie Blackmon day. Blackmon is also a lead-off hitter, so he tends to get that extra plate appearance that can increase the probability of a hit in a game.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 31
Franchy Cordero 26
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 23
J.T. Riddle 22
Kyle Higashioka 20
Peter Kozma 18
Cam Perkins 18
Eugenio Suarez 17
Eric Fryer 16
Rio Ruiz 15
C.J. Cron 15
Greg Bird 15
Miguel Sano 15
Mark Zagunis 14
Lewis Brinson 14
Avisail Garcia 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Dexter Fowler 13
Matt Davidson 13
Stuart Turner 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Allen Cordoba 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Matt Holliday 12
Leonys Martin 12
Deven Marrero 12
Byron Buxton 12
Gregor Blanco 11
Chase D'Arnaud 11
Jake Marisnick 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Kennys Vargas 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Ichiro Suzuki 11
Starling Marte 11
Orlando Calixte 11
Brandon Drury 11
Luis Sardinas 10
Tyler Collins 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Carlos Gomez 10
Brock Stassi 10
Kendrys Morales 10
Chris Young 10
Boog Powell 10
Stephen Vogt 10
Brett Gardner 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Ryan Braun 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Gregory Polanco 10
Ryder Jones 10
Ruben Tejada 10

Good luck!



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Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Our Products Are Becoming Commoditized!

It seems every product, regardless of how complex, is destined for some level of commoditization.

In virtually every industry, we look at products and solutions that were very complex.  These require great product knowledge and extensive work with the customer to help them understand the product and it’s application.  Over time, as products get greater market penetration, as competition increases, as we go through cycles of enhancement of the products, as customers get greater familiarity with them—-products, inevitably become commoditized.

Computers used to be a mystery, they were very complex (still are), our customers didn’t understand them, and legions of sales people with specialized training and knowledge were needed to sell them.  Now, we order them on line, with little or no sales help.

Product after product, regardless of the complexity becomes commoditized.  Some faster then others, but eventually all are on that path.

We shouldn’t be surprised when we look at any type of product adoption curve.  As we move past the peak of the “early majority,” products become commoditized.

We try to combat commoditization with Version 2, 3…….5…….10 of these products.  We add endless features and functions to the products.  In some cases it’s trying to differentiate the products, in some it’s catching up to competition.

The mantra is “bigger, better, faster, cheaper…”  Yes, that last word always sneaks in there.  As our products become commoditized,  both continual efficiencies in manufacturing and competition make them cheaper.

No product, no market is immune to this.  Some products tend to become commoditized very quickly, others may take decades, but they too start becoming commoditized.

As buyer comfort and knowledge increases, it becomes much easier to buy.  Risk, change, cost all become known, manageable, ultimately, customers prefer to order them online.

Many smart organizations fight product commoditization.  The take what Geoffrey Moore describes as the “whole product” concept.  We compete not just on the product itself, but on extended attributes of the product—the support services, the reputation of the supplier/company, logistics management, quality, and so forth.  Competing becomes not just about the product itself, but about all the things that surround the product to make the customer feel confident about it’s capabilities.

But over time, too often, these become commoditized.  It used to be quality was the big differentiator–but now the differences in quality are very small and it has become table stakes.  It used to be support, often it still is, but as we look at customer experiences in which no support is needed, then support becomes commoditized.  (or all suppliers are judged as equally mediocre).

Over time, every product, to varying degrees becomes commoditized.  More and more sales move from “complex” to “transactional”  (which still can be differentiated by looking at the whole product experience).

As you might guess, many pundits or so called “gurus” and “experts” use this trend to commoditization to pronounce the death of sales.  Many joyously look at the adoption of advanced analytics and AI as the final nails in the coffins to selling.  Pretty soon, Alexa, or a chatbot can handle everything we need–answer customer questions, provide them insightful information, and accept their orders.

I don’t disagree—that is if sales is only about the product.

But it isn’t—it probably never has been!

Sales, or at least buying, has always been about the customer.  And the customer situation is never likely to be commoditized.

Each organization is different, they have different strategies, goals, priorities.  The people in each organization are different, they have different aspirations, dreams, goals.  All have differing risk profiles, attitudes to change.  All have differing fears and concerns.  And all of these change over time, escalating, de-escalating, and escalating again.

We know from research that decision making is becoming more difficult–more people are involved.  In just the few years since Challenger was published, CEB has said the number of buyers has grown from 5.7 to 6.8.  This year I expect to learn it has grown to over 7.

We know that increasing numbers of “buying initiatives” end in no decision made.

As companies struggle to grow and perform, we can infer from general industry and market data, the problems every business faces are not getting easier.

Customers need help!  They struggle to buy.  They struggle with very complex challenges, to which there are no easy answers.  They struggle to learn and grow.  They worry about uncertainty, risk, their futures.

The role of professional sales has always and, likely, will always be about helping the customer with these issued.  Helping them think differently, helping them learn and grow, helping them understand and manage the risk, helping them align divergent agendas and priorities.

Even better–each customer–each situation is different.  And these are constantly changing over time.

While our products will eventually become commoditized, what our customers face is unlikely to be commoditized.

If we make our focus in selling about our products—even the very rich “whole product” concept, our jobs will be commoditized and disappear.

But if we make our focus about helping our customers understand and solve their problems—regardless what we sell, the need for great sales people will always be great.

Ironically, those who have been selling true commodities (for example, basic chemicals) have always known this and are competing differently.

It seems those of us with some level of product based differentiation have a long way to go in recognizing this.

 

 



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Monday, June 26, 2017

Both Sides are Right

A ruling upheld the dismissal of a lawsuit by minor league players. Interestingly, both sides are right:

“Considering the case law and the Curt Flood Act, it is undeniably true that minor league baseball — particularly the employment of minor league baseball players and the requirement that they sign a uniform contract containing a reserve clause — falls squarely within baseball’s exemption from federal antitrust laws,” Chief Judge Sidney R. Thomas wrote in the opinion.

An MLB spokesman declined comment.

Four minor league players sued MLB in 2015, alleging that its hiring and employment policies violated antitrust laws by “restrain(ing) horizontal competition between and among” franchises and “artificially and illegally depressing” minor league salaries.

The players have a great argument, but one that is defeated by the MLB exemption. Once again, I will make my pitch for universal free agency. There would be no draft, no caps, players would sign with the highest bidder, or where they would most like to play. Maybe a rookie league player would be willing to play for $7500 a year for the chance to make millions in the future. As long it is the player’s decision, it would be fine.



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Batted Balls

As part of a discussion about where home runs are coming from, Tom Tango asks where batted balls are coming from.



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