Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain
0.345 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain
0.326 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Cain
0.322 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robert Gsellman
0.321 — Justin Turner batting against Jesse Chavez
0.320 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Gsellman
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Aaron Nola
0.315 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman
0.313 — Ian Desmond batting against Matt Cain
0.311 — Mark Reynolds batting against Matt Cain

Over the three years that are considered in this calculation, Matt Cain allowed a .304/.365/.507 slash line. He gives up lots of hits without walking a lot of batters. This game is in San Francisco, and the Rockies in general don’t hit as well on the road, but it should be a good night to pick your favorite Rockies batter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.350, 0.764 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain.
0.345, 0.762 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain.
0.298, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.315, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Aaron Nola.
0.321, 0.745 — Justin Turner batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.320, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.326, 0.735 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Cain.
0.309, 0.733 — Corey Dickerson batting against Trevor Williams.
0.322, 0.729 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.315, 0.729 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman.

The NN agrees on the top two spots, and also likes the Marlins against Gsellman. It’s a Charlie Blackmon day. Blackmon is also a lead-off hitter, so he tends to get that extra plate appearance that can increase the probability of a hit in a game.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	31
Franchy Cordero	26
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
J.T. Riddle	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Peter Kozma	18
Cam Perkins	18
Eugenio Suarez	17
Eric Fryer	16
Rio Ruiz	15
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Miguel Sano	15
Mark Zagunis	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Avisail Garcia	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Dexter Fowler	13
Matt Davidson	13
Stuart Turner	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Allen Cordoba	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Matt Holliday	12
Leonys Martin	12
Deven Marrero	12
Byron Buxton	12
Gregor Blanco	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Jake Marisnick	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kennys Vargas	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Ichiro Suzuki	11
Starling Marte	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Brandon Drury	11
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Carlos Gomez	10
Brock Stassi	10
Kendrys Morales	10
Chris Young	10
Boog Powell	10
Stephen Vogt	10
Brett Gardner	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Ryan Braun	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Gregory Polanco	10
Ryder Jones	10
Ruben Tejada	10

Good luck!

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