Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey
0.314 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Garza
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Garza
0.313 — Scooter Gennett batting against Joe Ross
0.311 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Garza
0.310 — David Peralta batting against Ben Lively
0.309 — Joey Votto batting against Joe Ross
0.307 — Xander Bogaerts batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.306 — Jose Peraza batting against Joe Ross

Ramirez against Gibson came in second six days ago. Gibson gave up eight hits in six innings in that game. Ramirez is hitting .458 since then, although he did not start Friday night. It was just a night off, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.322, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Homer Bailey.
0.333, 0.747 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.743 — Xander Bogaerts batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.314, 0.743 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Garza.
0.310, 0.742 — David Peralta batting against Ben Lively.
0.311, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Garza.
0.314, 0.734 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Garza.
0.286, 0.731 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.280, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.298, 0.722 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Gossett.

Murphy stands way out in front of the rest of the pack. Bailey’s make his 2017 debut, and he only pitched 34 1/3 innings the last two seasons in the majors. During his rehabilitation, he pitched 16 2/3 innings at three minor league levels, striking out 17, walking three, and allowing one home run. He posted a 1.08 ERA. Bailey healthy is a very good pitcher, but the Washington lineup does not resemble a minor league team. Murphy is 2 for 5 against Bailey in his career. Ramirez and Murphy are tied for the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Conor Gillaspie	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Franchy Cordero	20
Matthew Szczur	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Billy Hamilton	20
Greg Garcia	18
Jose Iglesias	17
J.T. Riddle	16
Joey Rickard	16
Brandon Crawford	16
Greg Bird	15
C.J. Cron	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Matt Carpenter	14
Ian Desmond	14
Johan Camargo	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Peter Kozma	13
Eric Fryer	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Shin-Soo Choo	12
Leonys Martin	12
Christian Yelich	12
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Stuart Turner	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Jed Lowrie	11
Jacob Lamb	11
Allen Cordoba	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Nomar Mazara	11
Elias D Diaz	11
Jedd Gyorko	10
Boog Powell	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Tommy La Stella	10
Stephen Vogt	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Dustin Pedroia	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Ryan Braun	10
Chris Gimenez	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Jason Castro	10
Tyler Collins	10
Ruben Tejada	10
Jay Bruce	10

Good luck!

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