Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kevin Gausman
0.322 — Starlin Castro batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.322 — Didi Gregorius batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.315 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Pill
0.306 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Kevin Gausman
0.305 — Matt Kemp batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.304 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.298 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.298 — Aaron Judge batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.295 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker

The Dodgers beat the Mets 12-0 Tuesday night, with pretty much everyone around Justin Turner getting a hit. Corey Seager hit three home runs. Turner reached on an error in the first inning, made three outs, then Dave Roberts decided to rest him in a blow out rather than give him a fifth PA to try to advance Turner’s hit streak.

Jose Ramirez, having his second outstanding season at the plate, moves to the top of the Log5 list. Ramirez plays 2017 as a 24-year-old, still a year away from his prime. He’s added power this season, already matching his home run total from 2016 in less than half the at bats.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.748 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.278, 0.743 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.315, 0.742 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Pill.
0.322, 0.740 — Starlin Castro batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.295, 0.739 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.322, 0.738 — Didi Gregorius batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.304, 0.734 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.283, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.298, 0.726 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.305, 0.726 — Matt Kemp batting against Jeff Samardzija.

Ramirez comes out on top in both lists. Gausman allowed a .301 hit average so far this season. That is extreme for a pitcher. Note that in a year where players are hitting a lot more home runs, Gausman’s high BA allowed is a result of more singles. His isolated power is about the same.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Jett Bandy	25
Daniel Robertson	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Aaron Hill	17
Matt Wieters	17
Matthew Szczur	16
Greg Bird	15
Eric Thames	15
Mitch Moreland	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Jorge Polanco	14
Miguel Cabrera	13
Chase Headley	13
Joey Rickard	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Daniel Nava	13
Christian Vazquez	13
Joey Gallo	13
Peter Kozma	13
Chris Carter	12
Greg Garcia	12
Ryon Healy	12
Rio Ruiz	12
Franchy Cordero	12
Kevin Pillar	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
James McCann	11
Orlando Calixte	11
C.J. Cron	11
Mitch Haniger	11
Craig Gentry	11
Buster Posey	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Matt Olson	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Stuart Turner	11
Billy Hamilton	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Michael Conforto	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Russell Martin	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Ryan Braun	10
Allen Cordoba	10
Josh Bell	10
Boog Powell	10
Tyler Collins	10
Jared W. Hoying	10

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2sP95Se