Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz
0.317 — Howie Kendrick batting against Patrick Corbin
0.309 — Corey Dickerson batting against Daniel Norris
0.305 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Kevin Gausman
0.305 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.302 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Kevin Gausman
0.301 — David Peralta batting against Aaron Nola
0.300 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Fiers
0.298 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Steven Matz
0.297 — Yadier Molina batting against Kevin Gausman

Kendrick is having his best offensive season in ten years, and today it pushes him to the top of the Log5 list against the very hittable Patrick Corbin.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.305, 0.745 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.295, 0.734 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.300, 0.734 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Fiers.
0.309, 0.733 — Corey Dickerson batting against Daniel Norris.
0.287, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.301, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Aaron Nola.
0.286, 0.727 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.282, 0.721 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.298, 0.720 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Steven Matz.
0.287, 0.720 — Josh Harrison batting against Eddie Butler.

Zimmerman owns an impressive .335 hit average this season, but is being pulled down the list by his previous two seasons. His three year weighted hit average is .251. Murphy’s numbers are .318 this year, .305 weighted for three years. It’s another Daniel Murphy day. Murphy hits the Mets extremely well.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Carlos Gonzalez	26
Jeff Mathis	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jett Bandy	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Michael Saunders	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Omar Narvaez	19
Todd Frazier	18
Zack Cozart	17
Darwin Barney	17
Brandon Belt	16
Greg Bird	15
Odubel Herrera	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Chase D'Arnaud	13
Ehire Adrianza	12
Jose Lobaton	12
Kevin Pillar	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Orlando Calixte	11
Logan Forsythe	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Deven Marrero	11
Craig Gentry	11
Cliff Pennington	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Matt Olson	11
Peter Kozma	11
Boog Powell	10
Nelson Cruz	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Stuart Turner	10
Tyler Collins	10
Daniel Robertson	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Ryan Braun	10
Hanley Ramirez	10
Yandy Diaz	10

Jett Bandy, the official favorite player of Baseball Musings, is due.

Good luck!

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