Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Justin Turner batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Daniel Murphy batting against Eddie Butler
0.309 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.304 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.303 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against German Marquez
0.299 — David Peralta batting against Nick Pivetta
0.296 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Eddie Butler
0.295 — Corey Seager batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija

There is a light schedule today, so there is a huge gap between the top two players on the list and the tenth slot. Turner is batting .393 on the season, but doesn’t yet qualify for the batting title. The Dodgers played 77 games so Turner would need 239 PA to qualify. He is at 225 PA, and starters will gain one or two PA per game on what’s needed. Expect him to pop on the leader board in a couple of weeks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.320, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Eddie Butler.
0.340, 0.756 — Justin Turner batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.309, 0.740 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.304, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.299, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.300, 0.730 — Buster Posey batting against German Marquez.
0.283, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Eddie Butler.
0.296, 0.723 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Eddie Butler.
0.303, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha.
0.295, 0.715 — Corey Seager batting against Ricky Nolasco.

This is a tough choice today between Murphy and Justin Turner. Log5 likes Turner much better, the NN likes Murphy much better. Turner’s match-up against Nolasco is better in 2017. Turner owns a .333 hit average, Nolasco .269. For the Murphy-Butler match-up in 2017, those hit averages are .311 for Murphy, .216 for Butler. With the league hit average at .232, Butler should hurt Murphy’s ability to collect a hit. But on a three-year scale, the Murphy-Butler match-up is better, .303 for Murphy, .270 for Butler against .273 for Turner, .258 for Nolasco. Murphy is also playing today in a park more conducive to hits, with a three-year hit average of .234, versus .219 for Turner’s park. The NN weights the three-year hit averages more heavily, so Murphy comes out ahead.

Murphy is 1 for 2 career against Butler. Turner never faced Nolasco.

DJ LeMhieu is 10 for 24 against Samardzija, and Blackmon is 8 for 27.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	30
Franchy Cordero	26
Aaron Hill	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
J.T. Riddle	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Peter Kozma	17
Cam Perkins	17
Eric Fryer	16
Greg Bird	15
Mike Napoli	15
Rio Ruiz	15
C.J. Cron	15
Eugenio Suarez	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Dexter Fowler	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Stuart Turner	13
Deven Marrero	12
Allen Cordoba	12
Raimel Tapia	12
Matt Holliday	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Nomar Mazara	11
Jake Marisnick	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Miguel Sano	11
Gregor Blanco	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Ichiro Suzuki	11
Mark Zagunis	11
Danny Espinosa	11
Ryan Braun	10
Brandon Drury	10
Stephen Vogt	10
Gregory Polanco	10
Boog Powell	10
Kendrys Morales	10
Ruben Tejada	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tim Anderson	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Tyler Collins	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2sdjWBA