Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Justin Turner batting against Bronson Arroyo
0.323 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.321 — Wilmer Flores batting against Joe Ross
0.319 — Elvis Andrus batting against Christian Bergman
0.316 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom
0.309 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.309 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Joe Ross
0.308 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Joe Musgrove
0.307 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.307 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach

Turner was hot before he went on the disabled list, and continued once he came back so that he now owns a 12-game hit streak. He is not hitting for much power, as 16 of his 20 hits are singles, but for the sake of a hit streak, that doesn’t matter at all. Arroyo pitched poorly this season, allowing 87 hits in 68 innings, and 47 of those hits went for extra bases. It’s a Beat the Streak match made in heaven.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.350, 0.757 — Justin Turner batting against Bronson Arroyo.
0.307, 0.745 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.323, 0.737 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.308, 0.734 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.307, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.319, 0.732 — Elvis Andrus batting against Christian Bergman.
0.291, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.316, 0.729 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.272, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.

I am very surprised Murphy beats out Turner. There are six hit average parameters fed into the NN. One is the mean hit average for all non-pitchers, so that is the same for everyone, .231. One is the park hit average, and Turner wins that one .234 to .221. So Turner is playing in a park that should help hitters, Murphy in one that should hurt hitters. For the current year and weighted three year hit averages, Arroyo comes in at .294/.260, deGrom .238/.227. In 2017, Turner beats Murphy .324 to .318. The three-year weight hit average is where Murphy wins big, .305/.369. The NN sees that as the most important parameter, and Turner’s wins in the others are just not enough to push him past Murphy. Turner never faced Arroyo before, but Murphy is 3 for 6 against deGrom. This is a very tough pick for your game today.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Jett Bandy	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Brandon Belt	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Daniel Robertson	19
Greg Bird	15
Jose Pirela	15
Xander Bogaerts	15
Robbie Grossman	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Aaron Hill	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Jesus Sucre	12
Kelby Tomlinson	12
Lucas Duda	12
Domingo Santana	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Orlando Calixte	11
Matthew Szczur	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Matt Olson	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Marcell Ozuna	11
Andrew Benintendi	11
Craig Gentry	11
Starling Marte	11
Peter Kozma	11
Deven Marrero	11
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Scooter Gennett	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Boog Powell	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Ryan Braun	10
Hanley Ramirez	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Tyler Collins	10
Stuart Turner	10
David Freese	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Jorge Polanco	10
Kris Bryant	10

If you believe in players being due, then Xander Bogaerts is your man.

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2sLIvd4