Aaron Judge sits atop all three triple crown categories in the Amercian League today. One category he appears to have a very good chance of winning is the RBI crown. A few years ago, I wrote a simulator to calculate the probability of one player finishing with more RBI than another, given their current RBI total and their likely remaining plate appearances.
The program constructs a model of the last three years of situational data (2015-2017 in this case). For each base situation, it calculates the probability of the batter being in that situation in a given PA, and the average number of RBI for the player in that situation. For each remaining plate appearance, a random number is used to select the base situation, and the number of RBI per PA for that situation is added to the total. This is repeated for 10,000 season, and the number of wins for each player is recorded.
Running this for Judge against Nelson Cruz, currently second in the AL in RBI with 58, Judge wins 85.5% of the time. Judge averages 123 RBI per simulated season, Cruz 109. Judge’s high season was 166 RBI, his low 89 RBI. His first quartile came in at 104, his third quartile at 143. So by random luck, Judge could do very well or very poorly the rest of the way, but he will likely drive in well over 100 runs barring injury.
My own opinion is that Judge will have a tough time holding off Jose Altuve in the batting average race.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tkWlTN
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