Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.352 — Justin Turner batting against Robert Gsellman
0.329 — Trey Mancini batting against Josh Tomlin
0.326 — Jose Ramirez batting against Chris Tillman
0.319 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.319 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Josh Tomlin
0.317 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Moore
0.317 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Moore
0.316 — Welington Castillo batting against Josh Tomlin
0.311 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Moore
0.309 — Adam Jones batting against Josh Tomlin

Justin Turner remained one of the hottest hitters in baseball with a four for four game against the Mets Monday night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.352, 0.763 — Justin Turner batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.289, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.299, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Sonny Gray.
0.308, 0.740 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.317, 0.739 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Moore.
0.326, 0.738 — Jose Ramirez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.311, 0.732 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Moore.
0.317, 0.731 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Moore.
0.276, 0.730 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.306, 0.729 — Didi Gregorius batting against Parker Bridwell.

The NN sees Turner against Gsellman as the best pick of the day also. The NN code now credits Turner with a .342 hit average for 2017, which is still slightly regressed toward the mean since he is a few PA short of 200. Turner is hitting .399 on the season with a .478 OBP. Soon we’ll be asking if he can hit .400 for the year.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Jett Bandy	25
Daniel Robertson	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Aaron Hill	17
Domingo Santana	16
Matthew Szczur	15
Greg Bird	15
Robbie Grossman	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Mitch Moreland	14
Jorge Polanco	14
Kris Bryant	14
Christian Vazquez	13
Joey Gallo	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Peter Kozma	13
Leonys Martin	12
Jesus Sucre	12
Matt Wieters	12
Rio Ruiz	12
Nolan Fontana	12
J.D. Martinez	12
Miguel Sano	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Joey Rickard	11
Matt Olson	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Deven Marrero	11
Greg Garcia	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Francisco Lindor	11
Stuart Turner	11
C.J. Cron	11
Craig Gentry	11
Tucker Barnhart	10
Tyler Collins	10
Ryan Braun	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Boog Powell	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Eric Thames	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10

Good luck!

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