Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Daniel Murphy batting against Justin Nicolino
0.320 — Ben Gamel batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.319 — Jon Jay batting against Clayton Richard
0.307 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Justin Nicolino
0.306 — Robinson Cano batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.306 — Corey Dickerson batting against Scott Feldman
0.305 — Matt Kemp batting against Johnny Cueto
0.302 — Brandon Phillips batting against Johnny Cueto
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Gossett
0.302 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Richard

The 2016 season weight heavily on Nicolino right now. He allowed .307 BA with a .348 OBP, so he was hittable. His 2017 numbers still represent a small sample size. Murphy is a pretty good bet against any pitcher, however. Gamel is one of the hottest hitters in the league right now.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.778 — Daniel Murphy batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.302, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.301, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.302, 0.733 — Brandon Phillips batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.298, 0.730 — Justin Turner batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.306, 0.730 — Corey Dickerson batting against Scott Feldman.
0.296, 0.729 — Buster Posey batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.305, 0.726 — Matt Kemp batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.291, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.320, 0.724 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Anibal Sanchez.

Murphy is the unanimous pick, but Altuve and Gamel flip places. That’s probably right, as Altuve has a lengthier track record of success.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Jett Bandy	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Daniel Robertson	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Aaron Hill	17
Robbie Grossman	15
Jose Pirela	15
Greg Bird	15
Jorge Polanco	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Peter Kozma	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Jesus Sucre	12
Domingo Santana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Matthew Szczur	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Kelby Tomlinson	12
Giancarlo Stanton	12
Starling Marte	11
Deven Marrero	11
Miguel Sano	11
Rio Ruiz	11
Elvis Andrus	11
Craig Gentry	11
Matt Olson	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Greg Garcia	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Stuart Turner	11
C.J. Cron	11
Scott Van Slyke	10
Ryan Braun	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Kris Bryant	10
Tyler Collins	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Boog Powell	10
Joey Rickard	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

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