Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.365 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.349 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman
0.322 — J.D. Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.320 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.319 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Leake
0.315 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.314 — Buster Posey batting against Gerrit Cole
0.313 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin
0.309 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Garza
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Garza
0.308 — John Hicks batting against Josh Tomlin

Turner is 5 for 12 with one walk, one strikeout, and no extra base hits against Richard.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.365, 0.769 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.319, 0.764 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Leake.
0.349, 0.749 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman.
0.307, 0.745 — Jean Segura batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.303, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.
0.314, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.315, 0.739 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.309, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Garza.
0.320, 0.731 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.322, 0.727 — J.D. Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin.

The lists are very similar with Justin Turner topping both.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	32
Franchy Cordero	27
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Avisail Garcia	22
Eric Fryer	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mark Zagunis	18
Allen Cordoba	18
Peter Kozma	18
Ryder Jones	16
David Freese	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Manny Machado	15
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Carlos Gomez	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Franklin Barreto	14
Eric Thames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Mitch Haniger	14
Alexi Amarista	13
Mallex Smith	13
Jordy Mercer	13
Mike Zunino	13
Hyun Soo Kim	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Chris Stewart	13
Josh Donaldson	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Dansby Swanson	12
Leonys Martin	12
Sam Travis	12
Brock Stassi	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Delino Deshields Jr.	12
Matt Holliday	12
Brandon Moss	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Wilmer Flores	11
Chase Headley	11
Rob Refsnyder	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Max Moroff	11
Charlie Blackmon	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Tyler Collins	10
Todd Frazier	10
Joey Gallo	10
Patrick Kivlehan	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Tom J Murphy	10
Boog Powell	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Eugenio Suarez	10

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ttfRNS