Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — David Peralta batting against Adam Wainwright
0.318 — Jose Pirela batting against Bartolo Colon
0.317 — Cory Spangenberg batting against Bartolo Colon
0.316 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach
0.315 — Brandon Phillips batting against Luis Perdomo
0.314 — Ender Inciarte batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Howie Kendrick batting against Felix Hernandez
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach
0.311 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ivan Nova

Peralta is a name often in the top ten but seldom at the top. His high OBP is due mostly to his batting average, as he only drew 18 walks this year. He’s facing Adam Wainwright on the road, where batters hit Wainwright hard this year.

Also, Kendrick and LeMahieu are battling injuries, so watch to see if they are actually in the lineup tonight.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lackey.
0.327, 0.752 — David Peralta batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.316, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.312, 0.742 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.315, 0.741 — Brandon Phillips batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.740 — Ender Inciarte batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.311, 0.737 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.303, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.313, 0.731 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.

Murphy heads the list once again. He currently owns an 11-game hit streak. Peralta is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	32
Franchy Cordero	27
Aaron Hill	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Miguel Sano	19
Peter Kozma	18
Avisail Garcia	18
Matt Davidson	17
Brandon Drury	16
Gregor Blanco	16
Eric Fryer	16
C.J. Cron	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Greg Bird	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Gregory Polanco	14
Tommy Joseph	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Mark Zagunis	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stuart Turner	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Allen Cordoba	13
Ryder Jones	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Alexi Amarista	13
Leonys Martin	12
David Freese	12
Matt Holliday	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Brett Gardner	11
Kennys Vargas	11
Seth Smith	11
Josh Bell	11
Trayce Thompson	11
Max Kepler	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Stephen Vogt	11
Starling Marte	11
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Benjamin Gamel	10
Matt Olson	10
Ruben Tejada	10
Eric Thames	10
Tyler Collins	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Carlos Gomez	10
Hyun Soo Kim	10
Ryan Zimmerman	10
Tyler Kelly	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Boog Powell	10
Brock Stassi	10
Kyle Seager	10
Mitch Haniger	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Yandy Diaz	10

Good luck!

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